Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
IF Elfsborg play Malmö FF at home on 23 October 2026 · 18:00 at Borås Arena (Boras); the referee is Granit Maqedonci, Sweden. For us, IF Elfsborg (46%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. IF Elfsborg are 5th in the table, on 46 points after 27 matches (12W 10D 5L), and Malmö FF are 7th, on 40 points (12W 4D 11L).
- Attack and defence. On average IF Elfsborg score 1.5 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.0; for Malmö FF the figures are 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. IF Elfsborg: 11W 8D 5L, goals 37–24; Malmö FF: 11W 3D 10L, goals 38–34.
- Head to head. From 24 meetings: 5 wins for IF Elfsborg, 15 wins for Malmö FF and 4 draws, with the goals at 22–40.
What to expect
For us, IF Elfsborg are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 59% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 56% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 24; IF Elfsborg 5 wins, 4 draws, Malmö FF 15 wins.
- An average of 2.6 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: IF Elfsborg 37–24, Malmö FF 38–34.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 56%.
- Out: IF Elfsborg 3, Malmö FF 7.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 59%, best price 1.62). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for IF Elfsborg: V. Elfstrom, L. Hagg, M. Rohden. Absent for Malmö FF: I. Assibu, K. Busuladzic, P. Jansson, N. John, W. Kamanzi, Y. Karabelyov, O. Sjostrand. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.07 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| Market average | 2.01 | 3.69 | 3.32 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.28 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 1.19 | 78.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 1.66 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.15 | 43.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.79 | 2.63 | 35.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.57 | 58.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 23/10/26, 16:04. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.0%.
At a glance
- Likely result: IF Elfsborg 1–1 Malmö FF, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: IF Elfsborg 5th (46 points), Malmö FF 7th (40 points).
- Form in the competition: IF Elfsborg 11W 8D 5L (37:24), Malmö FF 11W 3D 10L (38:34).
- H2H: 24 matches: IF Elfsborg 5W 4D 15L, goals 22–40.
- Absences: IF Elfsborg 3, Malmö FF 7.
Who will win IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: team news and absences
IF Elfsborg
- V. Elfstromnot in the squad · will miss the match
- L. Haggnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Rohdenmuscle injury · will miss the match
Malmö FF
- I. Assibunot in the squad · will miss the match
- K. Busuladzicinjury · will miss the match
- P. Janssonknee injury · will miss the match
- N. Johnnot in the squad · will miss the match
- W. Kamanzimuscle injury · will miss the match
- Y. Karabelyovnot in the squad · will miss the match
- O. Sjostrandknee injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 27 | 18-4-5 | 58:34 | 58 |
| 2 |  Hammarby FF | 27 | 17-4-6 | 56:22 | 55 |
| 3 |  Djurgårdens IF | 27 | 16-4-7 | 55:25 | 52 |
| 4 |  BK Häcken | 27 | 13-10-4 | 48:30 | 49 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 27 | 12-10-5 | 41:27 | 46 |
| 6 |  Västerås SK FK | 27 | 13-5-9 | 40:38 | 44 |
| 7 | Malmö FF | 27 | 12-4-11 | 42:36 | 40 |
| 8 |  AIK Stockholm | 27 | 10-8-9 | 43:47 | 38 |
| 9 |  IFK Göteborg | 27 | 10-8-9 | 36:46 | 38 |
| 10 |  Gais | 27 | 10-7-10 | 34:27 | 37 |
| 11 |  IF Brommapojkarna | 27 | 9-7-11 | 39:44 | 34 |
| 12 |  Mjällby AIF | 27 | 6-9-12 | 30:43 | 27 |
| 13 |  Kalmar FF | 27 | 6-5-16 | 23:42 | 23 |
| 14 |  Degerfors IF | 27 | 5-5-17 | 22:46 | 20 |
| 15 |  Örgryte IS | 27 | 4-7-16 | 33:60 | 19 |
| 16 |  Halmstad | 27 | 4-5-18 | 18:51 | 17 |
Recent matches
IF Elfsborg
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
IF ElfsborgWDDDWMalmö FFLWDLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?
Draw or Malmö FF (X2) (1.82); Under 3.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?
We estimate: IF Elfsborg win 46%, draw 25%, Malmö FF win 28%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 23 October 2026, kick-off: 18:00, venue: Borås Arena, Boras. Referee: Granit Maqedonci, Sweden.
Who will be missing?
IF Elfsborg: V. Elfstrom, L. Hagg, M. Rohden. Malmö FF: I. Assibu, K. Busuladzic, P. Jansson, N. John, W. Kamanzi, Y. Karabelyov, O. Sjostrand. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.71); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 44% (odds 2.20).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.3%), then 2–1 (9.4%) and 1–0 (9.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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