Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Modena play Mantova at home on 31 October 2026 · 14:00 at Alberto Braglia (Modena); the referee is Francesco Fourneau. For us, Modena (52%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Modena vs Mantova: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Modena are 2nd in the table, on 20 points after 10 matches (6W 2D 2L), and Mantova are 4th, on 18 points (5W 3D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Modena score 1.9 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.0; for Mantova the figures are 1.6 scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Modena: 6W 1D 2L, goals 17–9; Mantova: 5W 2D 2L, goals 14–10.
- Head to head. From 9 meetings: 4 wins for Modena, 1 win for Mantova and 4 draws, with the goals at 12–6.
What to expect
For us, Modena are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 58% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 56% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 9; Modena 4 wins, 4 draws, Mantova 1 win.
- An average of 2.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Modena 17–9, Mantova 14–10.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 56%.
- Out: Modena 0, Mantova 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 58%, best price 1.67). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Modena: no absences. Absent for Mantova: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Modena vs Mantova: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.84 | 3.80 | 4.71 |
| Market average | 1.79 | 3.60 | 4.18 |
| Lowest odds | 1.75 | 3.32 | 3.64 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.19 | 78.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 1.67 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.21 | 2.16 | 43.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.78 | 2.63 | 35.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.61 | 57.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.20 | 42.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 07:09. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Modena 1–1 Mantova, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Modena 2nd (20 points), Mantova 4th (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Modena 6W 1D 2L (17:9), Mantova 5W 2D 2L (14:10).
- H2H: 9 matches: Modena 4W 4D 1L, goals 12–6.
- Absences: Modena 0, Mantova 0.
Who will win Modena vs Mantova?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Modena vs Mantova: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Modena vs Mantova: team news and absences
Modena
- No reported absences
Mantova
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 10 | 8-2-0 | 24:12 | 26 |
| 2 | Modena | 10 | 6-2-2 | 18:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ascoli | 10 | 5-4-1 | 16:6 | 19 |
| 4 | Mantova | 10 | 5-3-2 | 15:11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Avellino | 10 | 4-3-3 | 15:10 | 15 |
| 6 |  Benevento | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 7 |  Hellas Verona | 10 | 4-3-3 | 19:13 | 15 |
| 8 |  Pisa | 10 | 4-3-3 | 18:15 | 15 |
| 9 |  Padova | 10 | 4-2-4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Südtirol | 10 | 3-5-2 | 11:10 | 14 |
| 11 |  Cremonese | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 |  Cesena | 10 | 2-6-2 | 11:14 | 12 |
| 13 |  Arezzo | 10 | 3-2-5 | 9:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  Virtus Entella | 10 | 2-4-4 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Carrarese | 10 | 3-1-6 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 16 |  Juve Stabia | 10 | 3-4-3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 17 |  Vicenza Virtus | 10 | 2-3-5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 18 |  Empoli | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sampdoria | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:18 | 8 |
| 20 |  Catanzaro | 10 | 1-3-6 | 11:22 | 6 |
Recent matches
Modena
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
ModenaDWWLWMantovaDLWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Modena vs Mantova?
Modena -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.84); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Modena vs Mantova?
We estimate: Modena win 52%, draw 26%, Mantova win 22%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 14:00, venue: Alberto Braglia, Modena. Referee: Francesco Fourneau.
Who will be missing?
Modena: no absences. Mantova: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.72); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 44% (odds 2.21).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 58% (odds 1.67).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.8%), then 2–1 (9.8%) and 1–0 (9.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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