Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Modena play Cesena at home on 24 October 2026 · 14:00 at Alberto Braglia (Modena); the referee is Dario Madonia. For us, Modena (61%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Modena vs Cesena: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Modena are 2nd in the table, on 20 points after 10 matches (6W 2D 2L), and Cesena are 12th, on 12 points (2W 6D 2L).
- Head to head. From 10 meetings: 4 wins for Modena, 3 wins for Cesena and 3 draws, with the goals at 9–6.
What to expect
For us, Modena are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–0 (10.5%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.49), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 53% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 56% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 10; Modena 4 wins, 3 draws, Cesena 3 wins.
- An average of 1.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 56%.
- Out: Modena 0, Cesena 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals (probability 56%, best price 1.75). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Modena: no absences. Absent for Cesena: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Modena vs Cesena: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.57 | 4.34 | 6.15 |
| Market average | 1.53 | 4.17 | 5.70 |
| Lowest odds | 1.50 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.19 | 78.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 1.67 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.16 | 43.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.87 | 2.64 | 35.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.75 | 53.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.02 | 1.97 | 47.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 11:23. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Modena 2–0 Cesena, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Modena 2nd (20 points), Cesena 12th (12 points).
- H2H: 10 matches: Modena 4W 3D 3L, goals 9–6.
- Absences: Modena 0, Cesena 0.
Who will win Modena vs Cesena?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Modena vs Cesena: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Modena vs Cesena: team news and absences
Modena
- No reported absences
Cesena
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 10 | 8-2-0 | 24:12 | 26 |
| 2 | Modena | 10 | 6-2-2 | 18:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ascoli | 10 | 5-4-1 | 16:6 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mantova | 10 | 5-3-2 | 15:11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Avellino | 10 | 4-3-3 | 15:10 | 15 |
| 6 |  Benevento | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 7 |  Hellas Verona | 10 | 4-3-3 | 19:13 | 15 |
| 8 |  Pisa | 10 | 4-3-3 | 18:15 | 15 |
| 9 |  Padova | 10 | 4-2-4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Südtirol | 10 | 3-5-2 | 11:10 | 14 |
| 11 |  Cremonese | 10 | 3-3-4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 | Cesena | 10 | 2-6-2 | 11:14 | 12 |
| 13 |  Arezzo | 10 | 3-2-5 | 9:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  Virtus Entella | 10 | 2-4-4 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Carrarese | 10 | 3-1-6 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 16 |  Juve Stabia | 10 | 3-4-3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 17 |  Vicenza Virtus | 10 | 2-3-5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 18 |  Empoli | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sampdoria | 10 | 2-2-6 | 10:18 | 8 |
| 20 |  Catanzaro | 10 | 1-3-6 | 11:22 | 6 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Modena vs Cesena?
Over 2.5 goals (1.75); Modena to win (1.57).
Who will win Modena vs Cesena?
We estimate: Modena win 61%, draw 22%, Cesena win 16%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 14:00, venue: Alberto Braglia, Modena. Referee: Dario Madonia.
Who will be missing?
Modena: no absences. Cesena: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.75); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 44% (odds 2.27).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 53% (odds 1.80).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–0 as most likely (10.5%), then 1–0 (10.5%) and 2–1 (9.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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