Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Paris Saint Germain against Lyon on 26 October 2026 · 19:30 at Parc des Princes (Paris), and Jérôme Brisard will referee. Paris Saint Germain (72%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Paris Saint Germain are 1st in the table, on 20 points after 9 matches (6W 2D 1L), and Lyon are 3rd, on 17 points (5W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Paris Saint Germain score 2.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.3; for Lyon the figures are 1.9 scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Paris Saint Germain: 4W 2D 1L, goals 14–9; Lyon: 4W 2D 1L, goals 13–5.
- Head to head. From 42 meetings: 28 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 8 wins for Lyon and 6 draws, with the goals at 90–43.
What to expect
For us, Paris Saint Germain are the more likely winners. We estimate a 3–1 score, roughly 4 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.62), and we rate it at 59%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 59% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 70% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 42; Paris Saint Germain 28 wins, 6 draws, Lyon 8 wins.
- An average of 3.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Paris Saint Germain 14–9, Lyon 13–5.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 70%.
- Out: Paris Saint Germain 5, Lyon 6.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 59%, best price 1.62). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Paris Saint Germain: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, N. Mendes, A. Longoni. Absent for Lyon: S. Kango, K. Nakamura, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, N. Tagliafico. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.36 | 6.09 | 9.00 |
| Market average | 1.32 | 5.75 | 8.36 |
| Lowest odds | 1.29 | 5.00 | 7.34 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.34 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.29 | 3.13 | 30.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.97 | 1.90 | 50.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.58 | 59.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.27 | 41.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 26/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.2%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Lyon, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Paris Saint Germain 1st (20 points), Lyon 3rd (17 points).
- Form in the competition: Paris Saint Germain 4W 2D 1L (14:9), Lyon 4W 2D 1L (13:5).
- H2H: 42 matches: Paris Saint Germain 28W 6D 8L, goals 90–43.
- Absences: Paris Saint Germain 5, Lyon 6.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: team news and absences
Paris Saint Germain
- O. Dembelethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Kvaratskheliaknee injury · will miss the match
- Marquinhosthigh injury · will miss the match
- N. Mendesmuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Longoniinjury · doubtful
Lyon
- S. Kangoconcussion · will miss the match
- K. Nakamurared card · will miss the match
- L. Opendaabsence · will miss the match
- M. Ouedraogoknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Sulcknee injury · will miss the match
- N. Tagliaficomuscle injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 | Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Paris Saint Germain
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Paris Saint GermainWWWWWLyonWLWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Lyon +1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.87); Both teams to score (1.62).
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
We estimate: Paris Saint Germain win 72%, draw 17%, Lyon win 11%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 26 October 2026, kick-off: 19:30, venue: Parc des Princes, Paris. Referee: Jérôme Brisard.
Who will be missing?
Paris Saint Germain: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, N. Mendes, A. Longoni. Lyon: S. Kango, K. Nakamura, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, N. Tagliafico. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 70% (odds 1.37); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 30% (odds 3.29).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.2%), then 2–0 (9.2%) and 3–1 (8.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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