Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Portsmouth play Swansea at home on 3 November 2026 · 19:45 at Fratton Park (Portsmouth); the referee is Matthew Corlett. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Portsmouth vs Swansea: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Portsmouth are 10th in the table, on 22 points after 14 matches (6W 4D 4L), and Swansea are 5th, on 26 points (8W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average Portsmouth score 1.2 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.2; for Swansea the figures are 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Portsmouth: 5W 4D 4L, goals 16–15; Swansea: 8W 2D 3L, goals 20–13.
- Head to head. From 4 meetings: 1 win for Portsmouth, 2 wins for Swansea and 1 draw, with the goals at 7–5.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (13.0%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.76), and we rate it at 56%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 51% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 44% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 4; Portsmouth 1 win, 1 draw, Swansea 2 wins.
- An average of 3.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Portsmouth 16–15, Swansea 20–13.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 44%.
- Out: Portsmouth 7, Swansea 5.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 51%, best price 1.85). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Portsmouth: K. Anderson, B. Arthur, C. Bishop, L. Brooke-Smith, M. Kosznovszky, C. Ogilvie, J. Swift. Absent for Swansea: C. Burgess, Ronald, M. K. Yeo, S. Eustaquio, M. Stamenic. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Portsmouth vs Swansea: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.05 | 3.32 | 2.52 |
| Market average | 2.89 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| Lowest odds | 2.78 | 3.08 | 2.35 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.35 | 68.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.13 | 44.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.70 | 55.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.00 | 3.77 | 24.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.85 | 1.82 | 50.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.89 | 49.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 3/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Portsmouth 1–1 Swansea, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Portsmouth 10th (22 points), Swansea 5th (26 points).
- Form in the competition: Portsmouth 5W 4D 4L (16:15), Swansea 8W 2D 3L (20:13).
- H2H: 4 matches: Portsmouth 1W 1D 2L, goals 7–5.
- Absences: Portsmouth 7, Swansea 5.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Portsmouth vs Swansea: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Portsmouth vs Swansea: team news and absences
Portsmouth
- K. Andersonabsence · will miss the match
- B. Arthurback injury · will miss the match
- C. Bishopknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Brooke-Smithankle injury · will miss the match
- M. Kosznovszkynot in the squad · will miss the match
- C. Ogilvieknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Swiftknee injury · will miss the match
Swansea
- C. BurgessAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Ronaldhamstring injury · will miss the match
- M. K. Yeoinjury · will miss the match
- S. Eustaquionot in the squad · doubtful
- M. Stamenicnot in the squad · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 | Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Portsmouth
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
PortsmouthWDWDWSwanseaLWLLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Portsmouth +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Under 2.5 goals (1.76).
Who will win Portsmouth vs Swansea?
We estimate: Portsmouth win 32%, draw 29%, Swansea win 38%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 3 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Fratton Park, Portsmouth. Referee: Matthew Corlett.
Who will be missing?
Portsmouth: K. Anderson, B. Arthur, C. Bishop, L. Brooke-Smith, M. Kosznovszky, C. Ogilvie, J. Swift. Swansea: C. Burgess, Ronald, M. K. Yeo, S. Eustaquio, M. Stamenic. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 44% (odds 2.20); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 56% (odds 1.76).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 51% (odds 1.85).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (13.0%), then 0–1 (11.3%) and 1–0 (10.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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