Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Valencia v Villarreal: 24 October 2026 · 17:30 at Estadio de Mestalla (Valdivia), with Alejandro Quintero González, Spain refereeing. We have Villarreal (46%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Valencia vs Villarreal: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Valencia are 19th in the table, on 9 points after 11 matches (2W 3D 6L), and Villarreal are 9th, on 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
- Attack and defence. On average Valencia score 0.7 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.7; for Villarreal the figures are 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Valencia: 1W 3D 5L, goals 6–15; Villarreal: 2W 3D 4L, goals 13–13.
- Head to head. From 35 meetings: 14 wins for Valencia, 14 wins for Villarreal and 7 draws, with the goals at 47–42.
What to expect
For us, Villarreal are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and we rate it at 66%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 59% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 55% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 35; Valencia 14 wins, 7 draws, Villarreal 14 wins.
- An average of 2.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Valencia 6–15, Villarreal 13–13.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 55%.
- Out: Valencia 5, Villarreal 2.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 59%, best price 1.62). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Valencia: S. Canos, J. Copete, D. Foulquier, D. Lopez, U. Sadiq. Absent for Villarreal: N. Pepe, C. Romero. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Valencia vs Villarreal: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.55 | 3.74 | 2.17 |
| Market average | 3.46 | 3.59 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.73 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.13 | 44.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.88 | 2.77 | 34.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 12:03. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Valencia 1–1 Villarreal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Valencia 19th (9 points), Villarreal 9th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Valencia 1W 3D 5L (6:15), Villarreal 2W 3D 4L (13:13).
- H2H: 35 matches: Valencia 14W 7D 14L, goals 47–42.
- Absences: Valencia 5, Villarreal 2.
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Valencia vs Villarreal: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Valencia vs Villarreal: team news and absences
Valencia
- S. Canosknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Copeteknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Foulquierknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Lopezknee injury · will miss the match
- U. Sadiqmuscle injury · will miss the match
Villarreal
- N. Pepeabsence · will miss the match
- C. Romeroinjury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Valencia
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
ValenciaWLDDLVillarrealLWDLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Villarreal +0 (Asian handicap) (1.61); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
We estimate: Valencia win 28%, draw 27%, Villarreal win 46%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 17:30, venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia. Referee: Alejandro Quintero González, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Valencia: S. Canos, J. Copete, D. Foulquier, D. Lopez, U. Sadiq. Villarreal: N. Pepe, C. Romero. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.79); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 45% (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.3%), then 1–2 (9.4%) and 0–1 (9.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.