Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sarpsborg 08 FF play Aalesund at home on 25 October 2026 · 16:00 at Sarpsborg Stadion (Sarpsberg); the referee is Mischa Kellerhals. For us, Sarpsborg 08 FF (51%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Sarpsborg 08 FF are 9th in the table, on 31 points after 25 matches (8W 7D 10L), and Aalesund are 14th, on 24 points (5W 9D 11L).
- Attack and defence. On average Sarpsborg 08 FF score 1.2 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.5; for Aalesund the figures are 1.7 scored and 2.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sarpsborg 08 FF: 7W 7D 9L, goals 28–34; Aalesund: 5W 9D 9L, goals 39–51.
- Head to head. From 12 meetings: 9 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 2 wins for Aalesund and 1 draw, with the goals at 27–13.
What to expect
For us, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.87), and we rate it at 51%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 68% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 68% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 12; Sarpsborg 08 FF 9 wins, 1 draw, Aalesund 2 wins.
- An average of 3.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Sarpsborg 08 FF 28–34, Aalesund 39–51.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 68%.
- Out: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2, Aalesund 5.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals (probability 49%, best price 2.04). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Sarpsborg 08 FF: F. Carstensen, M. Opoku. Absent for Aalesund: H. Hammer, S. Haram, M. Reed, P. Aukland, A. Kjelsen. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.90 | 4.20 | 3.86 |
| Market average | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| Lowest odds | 1.82 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.10 | 85.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.37 | 68.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.95 | 31.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.04 | 1.93 | 48.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.37 | 67.8% |
| BTTS – no | 3.10 | 2.89 | 32.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 12:04. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Aalesund, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9th (31 points), Aalesund 14th (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Sarpsborg 08 FF 7W 7D 9L (28:34), Aalesund 5W 9D 9L (39:51).
- H2H: 12 matches: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9W 1D 2L, goals 27–13.
- Absences: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2, Aalesund 5.
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: team news and absences
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- F. Carstenseninjury · will miss the match
- M. Opokuankle injury · will miss the match
Aalesund
- H. Hammerinjury · will miss the match
- S. Haramabsence · will miss the match
- M. Reedinjury · will miss the match
- P. Auklandinjury · doubtful
- A. Kjelseninjury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 25 | 19-2-4 | 64:26 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 19-2-4 | 61:23 | 59 |
| 3 |  Molde | 25 | 13-4-8 | 59:39 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 25 | 13-4-8 | 49:31 | 43 |
| 5 |  Lillestrøm | 25 | 13-3-9 | 36:33 | 42 |
| 6 |  Tromsø | 25 | 11-7-7 | 43:38 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 25 | 10-2-13 | 45:42 | 32 |
| 8 |  Vålerenga | 25 | 9-5-11 | 43:46 | 32 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:41 | 31 |
| 11 |  Fredrikstad | 25 | 8-5-12 | 29:44 | 29 |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 25 | 7-6-12 | 26:34 | 27 |
| 13 |  Ham-Kam | 25 | 7-6-12 | 35:53 | 27 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 25 | 5-9-11 | 43:57 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6-5-14 | 29:51 | 23 |
| 16 |  Start | 25 | 5-4-16 | 26:55 | 19 |
Recent matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Sarpsborg 08 FFLWLWLAalesundLLWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.90); Under 3.5 goals (1.87).
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
We estimate: Sarpsborg 08 FF win 51%, draw 23%, Aalesund win 26%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 16:00, venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg. Referee: Mischa Kellerhals.
Who will be missing?
Sarpsborg 08 FF: F. Carstensen, M. Opoku. Aalesund: H. Hammer, S. Haram, M. Reed, P. Aukland, A. Kjelsen. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.42); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 32% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 68% (odds 1.40).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.2%), then 1–1 (9.0%) and 2–2 (6.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.