Bet with Freshbet →It is Sparta Rotterdam against AZ Alkmaar on 22 November 2026 · 13:30 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel (Rotterdam). AZ Alkmaar (57%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Sparta Rotterdam are 11th in the table, on 12 points after 11 matches (3W 3D 5L), and AZ Alkmaar are 5th, on 20 points (6W 2D 3L).
What to expect
For us, AZ Alkmaar are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–2 (9.7%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.47), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 64% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 65% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 65%.
- Out: Sparta Rotterdam 0, AZ Alkmaar 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 64%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Sparta Rotterdam: no absences. Absent for AZ Alkmaar: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.58 | 4.38 | 1.68 |
| Market average | 4.48 | 4.26 | 1.66 |
| Lowest odds | 4.33 | 4.10 | 1.63 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.47 | 1.43 | 65.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.71 | 34.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.06 | 45.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.58 | 2.55 | 36.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 03:20. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.2%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 AZ Alkmaar, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sparta Rotterdam 11th (12 points), AZ Alkmaar 5th (20 points).
- Absences: Sparta Rotterdam 0, AZ Alkmaar 0.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: team news and absences
Sparta Rotterdam
- No reported absences
AZ Alkmaar
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Under 3.5 goals (1.78); AZ Alkmaar to win (1.68).
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
We estimate: Sparta Rotterdam win 21%, draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar win 57%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 22 November 2026, kick-off: 13:30, venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam.
Who will be missing?
Sparta Rotterdam: no absences. AZ Alkmaar: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 65% (odds 1.47); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 35% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 64% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.7%), then 1–1 (9.2%) and 0–2 (7.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.