Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Le Mans play Toulouse at home on 16 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans); the referee is A. Petit. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Le Mans are 17th in the table, on 7 points after 9 matches (1W 4D 4L), and Toulouse are 12th, on 10 points (2W 4D 3L).
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–2 score estimate, roughly 3 goals in all, and 1–1 (11.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.57), and we rate it at 62%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 62% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 58% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 58%.
- Out: Le Mans 0, Toulouse 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 62%, best price 1.55). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Le Mans: no absences. Absent for Toulouse: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.21 | 3.70 | 2.31 |
| Market average | 3.13 | 3.59 | 2.25 |
| Lowest odds | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.17 | 79.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 1.64 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.28 | 41.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.67 | 2.50 | 37.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.51 | 61.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.50 | 2.42 | 38.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 16/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Le Mans 1–1 Toulouse, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Le Mans 17th (7 points), Toulouse 12th (10 points).
- Absences: Le Mans 0, Toulouse 0.
Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Le Mans vs Toulouse: team news and absences
Le Mans
- No reported absences
Toulouse
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Le Mans
Home and away
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Over 2.5 goals (1.70); Draw or Toulouse (X2) (1.40).
Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
We estimate: Le Mans win 31%, draw 27%, Toulouse win 43%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 16 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans. Referee: A. Petit.
Who will be missing?
Le Mans: no absences. Toulouse: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 58% (odds 1.70); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 42% (odds 2.38).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 62% (odds 1.55).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.3%), then 1–2 (9.0%) and 0–1 (8.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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