Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Toulouse play Estac Troyes at home on 25 October 2026 · 16:15 at Stadium Municipal (Toulouse); the referee is Geoffrey Kubler. For us, Toulouse (63%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Toulouse are 12th in the table, on 10 points after 9 matches (2W 4D 3L), and Estac Troyes are 16th, on 8 points (2W 2D 5L).
- Attack and defence. On average Toulouse score 1.7 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.6; for Estac Troyes the figures are 0.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Toulouse: 2W 3D 2L, goals 12–11; Estac Troyes: 1W 1D 5L, goals 5–16.
- Head to head. From 12 meetings: 7 wins for Toulouse, 0 wins for Estac Troyes and 5 draws, with the goals at 23–5.
What to expect
For us, Toulouse are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.61), and we rate it at 60%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 56% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 60% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 12; Toulouse 7 wins, 5 draws, Estac Troyes 0 wins.
- An average of 2.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Toulouse 12–11, Estac Troyes 5–16.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 60%.
- Out: Toulouse 2, Estac Troyes 4.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals (probability 60%, best price 1.64). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Toulouse: M. Niflore, S. Oppong. Absent for Estac Troyes: I. Boura, Y. Kone, A. Ouzenadji, Y. Titi. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.57 | 4.70 | 6.50 |
| Market average | 1.52 | 4.47 | 6.11 |
| Lowest odds | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.17 | 80.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 1.58 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.49 | 2.41 | 39.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.39 | 39.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.65 | 56.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.14 | 43.6% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 13:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Toulouse 2–1 Estac Troyes, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Toulouse 12th (10 points), Estac Troyes 16th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Toulouse 2W 3D 2L (12:11), Estac Troyes 1W 1D 5L (5:16).
- H2H: 12 matches: Toulouse 7W 5D 0L, goals 23–5.
- Absences: Toulouse 2, Estac Troyes 4.
Who will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: team news and absences
Toulouse
- M. Nifloreinjury · will miss the match
- S. Oppongcalf injury · will miss the match
Estac Troyes
- I. Bourahip injury · will miss the match
- Y. Koneknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Ouzenadjiknee injury · will miss the match
- Y. Titiabsence · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Toulouse
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
ToulouseLDWDWEstac TroyesWDLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Over 2.5 goals (1.64); Toulouse to win (1.57).
Who will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
We estimate: Toulouse win 63%, draw 21%, Estac Troyes win 16%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 16:15, venue: Stadium Municipal, Toulouse. Referee: Geoffrey Kubler.
Who will be missing?
Toulouse: M. Niflore, S. Oppong. Estac Troyes: I. Boura, Y. Kone, A. Ouzenadji, Y. Titi. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.64); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 40% (odds 2.49).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 56% (odds 1.70).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.9%), then 2–0 (9.9%) and 1–1 (9.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.