Bet with Freshbet →Union Berlin play RB Leipzig at home on 21 November 2026 · 14:30 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin). For us, RB Leipzig (55%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Union Berlin are 16th in the table, on 7 points after 8 matches (1W 4D 3L), and RB Leipzig are 4th, on 15 points (5W 0D 3L).
What to expect
For us, RB Leipzig are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–2 (9.4%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.88), and we rate it at 53%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 65% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 68% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 68%.
- Out: Union Berlin 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals (probability 47%, best price 2.07). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Union Berlin: no absences. Absent for RB Leipzig: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.41 | 4.57 | 1.76 |
| Market average | 4.18 | 4.31 | 1.72 |
| Lowest odds | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.09 | 85.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.39 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.92 | 32.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.07 | 2.03 | 47.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.43 | 65.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.73 | 2.69 | 34.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 17:11. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Union Berlin 1–2 RB Leipzig, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Union Berlin 16th (7 points), RB Leipzig 4th (15 points).
- Absences: Union Berlin 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Who will win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: team news and absences
Union Berlin
- No reported absences
RB Leipzig
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Under 3.5 goals (1.88); RB Leipzig to win (1.76).
Who will win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
We estimate: Union Berlin win 23%, draw 22%, RB Leipzig win 55%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 21 November 2026, kick-off: 14:30, venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin.
Who will be missing?
Union Berlin: no absences. RB Leipzig: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.40); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 32% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 65% (odds 1.44).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.4%), then 1–1 (8.8%) and 0–2 (7.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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