Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Newcastle play Aston Villa at home on 17 October 2026 · 17:30 at St James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne); the referee is Jarred Gillett. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Newcastle are 13th in the table, on 11 points after 9 matches (3W 2D 4L), and Aston Villa are 10th, on 12 points (3W 3D 3L).
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–1 score estimate, roughly 3 goals in all, and 1–1 (11.0%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 63%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 63% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 61% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 61%.
- Out: Newcastle 0, Aston Villa 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 63%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Newcastle: no absences. Absent for Aston Villa: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.44 | 3.78 | 2.94 |
| Market average | 2.37 | 3.66 | 2.82 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.15 | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.58 | 1.57 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 39.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.35 | 40.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.56 | 2.53 | 36.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 17/10/26, 13:52. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newcastle 13th (11 points), Aston Villa 10th (12 points).
- Absences: Newcastle 0, Aston Villa 0.
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: team news and absences
Newcastle
- No reported absences
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
We estimate: Newcastle win 40%, draw 26%, Aston Villa win 34%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 October 2026, kick-off: 17:30, venue: St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. Referee: Jarred Gillett.
Who will be missing?
Newcastle: no absences. Aston Villa: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.58); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 39% (odds 2.50).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.0%), then 2–1 (8.8%) and 1–2 (8.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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