Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Athletic Club play Real Sociedad at home on 1 November 2026 · 20:00 at San Mamés Stadium (Bilbao); the referee is Alejandro Hernández. For us, Athletic Club (47%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Athletic Club are 7th in the table, on 15 points after 10 matches (4W 3D 3L), and Real Sociedad are 5th, on 19 points (6W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average Athletic Club score 1.3 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.0; for Real Sociedad the figures are 1.9 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Athletic Club: 3W 3D 3L, goals 12–9; Real Sociedad: 6W 1D 3L, goals 19–18.
- Head to head. From 38 meetings: 14 wins for Athletic Club, 15 wins for Real Sociedad and 9 draws, with the goals at 41–44.
What to expect
For us, Athletic Club are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
What stands out is that the table favours the Real Sociedad, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.70), and we rate it at 57%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 57% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 53% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 38; Athletic Club 14 wins, 9 draws, Real Sociedad 15 wins.
- An average of 2.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Athletic Club 12–9, Real Sociedad 19–18.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 53%.
- Out: Athletic Club 3, Real Sociedad 3.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 57%, best price 1.70). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Athletic Club: U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta, I. Ruiz de Galarreta. Absent for Real Sociedad: L. Beitia, A. Odriozola, A. Zakharyan. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.07 | 3.76 | 3.79 |
| Market average | 2.01 | 3.60 | 3.62 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.33 | 3.32 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.24 | 75.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.84 | 1.79 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.05 | 46.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.05 | 2.92 | 32.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.64 | 56.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.15 | 43.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Athletic Club 1–1 Real Sociedad, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Athletic Club 7th (15 points), Real Sociedad 5th (19 points).
- Form in the competition: Athletic Club 3W 3D 3L (12:9), Real Sociedad 6W 1D 3L (19:18).
- H2H: 38 matches: Athletic Club 14W 9D 15L, goals 41–44.
- Absences: Athletic Club 3, Real Sociedad 3.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: team news and absences
Athletic Club
- U. Egiluzknee injury · will miss the match
- G. Guruzetaknee injury · will miss the match
- I. Ruiz de Galarretahamstring injury · will miss the match
Real Sociedad
- L. Beitiaankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Odriozolaknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Zakharyanankle injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Athletic Club
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Athletic ClubWWLDDReal SociedadLWWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Athletic Club +0 (Asian handicap) (1.54); Both teams to score (1.70).
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
We estimate: Athletic Club win 47%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad win 26%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao. Referee: Alejandro Hernández.
Who will be missing?
Athletic Club: U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta, I. Ruiz de Galarreta. Real Sociedad: L. Beitia, A. Odriozola, A. Zakharyan. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.84); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 47% (odds 2.12).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 57% (odds 1.70).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.8%), then 1–0 (10.2%) and 2–1 (9.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.