Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Chelsea against Manchester United on 31 October 2026 · 12:30 at Stamford Bridge (London), and Peter Bankes will referee. Chelsea (48%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Chelsea are 4th in the table, on 16 points after 9 matches (5W 1D 3L), and Manchester United are 17th, on 7 points (1W 4D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average Chelsea score 2.1 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.9; for Manchester United the figures are 1.3 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Chelsea: 4W 1D 3L, goals 17–15; Manchester United: 1W 4D 3L, goals 10–13.
- Head to head. From 41 meetings: 14 wins for Chelsea, 13 wins for Manchester United and 14 draws, with the goals at 53–55.
What to expect
For us, Chelsea are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.5%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.55), and we rate it at 62%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 62% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 60% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 41; Chelsea 14 wins, 14 draws, Manchester United 13 wins.
- An average of 2.6 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Chelsea 17–15, Manchester United 10–13.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 60%.
- Out: Chelsea 7, Manchester United 6.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 62%, best price 1.55). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Chelsea: A. Anselmino, J. Gittens, J. Hato, R. James, Joao Pedro, M. Lacroix, E. Martinez. Absent for Manchester United: P. Dorgu, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, K. Mainoo, M. Rashford. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.05 | 3.95 | 4.10 |
| Market average | 1.97 | 3.75 | 3.63 |
| Lowest odds | 1.82 | 3.46 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.16 | 80.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 1.60 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.46 | 2.35 | 40.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.52 | 2.44 | 38.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.51 | 61.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.60 | 2.44 | 38.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 09:22. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Chelsea 1–1 Manchester United, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Chelsea 4th (16 points), Manchester United 17th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Chelsea 4W 1D 3L (17:15), Manchester United 1W 4D 3L (10:13).
- H2H: 41 matches: Chelsea 14W 14D 13L, goals 53–55.
- Absences: Chelsea 7, Manchester United 6.
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Chelsea vs Manchester United: team news and absences
Chelsea
- A. Anselminoinjury · will miss the match
- J. Gittensankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Hatoinjury · will miss the match
- R. Jamesknee injury · will miss the match
- Joao Pedrothigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Lacroixmuscle injury · will miss the match
- E. Martinezabsence · will miss the match
Manchester United
- P. Dorguhamstring injury · will miss the match
- B. Seskoabsence · will miss the match
- L. Shawinjury · will miss the match
- M. Ugarteknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Mainooinjury · doubtful
- M. Rashfordhip injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Chelsea
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
ChelseaWLWWLManchester UnitedLLDDDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Draw or Manchester United (X2) (2.00); Both teams to score (1.55).
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
We estimate: Chelsea win 48%, draw 25%, Manchester United win 26%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 12:30, venue: Stamford Bridge, London. Referee: Peter Bankes.
Who will be missing?
Chelsea: A. Anselmino, J. Gittens, J. Hato, R. James, Joao Pedro, M. Lacroix, E. Martinez. Manchester United: P. Dorgu, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, K. Mainoo, M. Rashford. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.64); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 40% (odds 2.46).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 62% (odds 1.55).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.5%), then 2–1 (9.5%) and 1–0 (8.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.