Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Estac Troyes against Lens on 17 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stade de l'Aube (Troyes), and H. Ben El Hadj Salem will referee. Lens (52%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Estac Troyes vs Lens: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Estac Troyes are 16th in the table, on 8 points after 9 matches (2W 2D 5L), and Lens are 9th, on 13 points (4W 1D 4L).
What to expect
For us, Lens are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.51), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 59% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 57% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 57%.
- Out: Estac Troyes 0, Lens 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 59%, best price 1.62). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Estac Troyes: no absences. Absent for Lens: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Estac Troyes vs Lens: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.26 | 3.94 | 1.90 |
| Market average | 4.10 | 3.84 | 1.84 |
| Lowest odds | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.17 | 78.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 1.66 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 2.21 | 43.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.69 | 2.60 | 36.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.58 | 58.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.26 | 41.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 17/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Estac Troyes 1–1 Lens, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Estac Troyes 16th (8 points), Lens 9th (13 points).
- Absences: Estac Troyes 0, Lens 0.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Lens?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Estac Troyes vs Lens: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Estac Troyes vs Lens: team news and absences
Estac Troyes
- No reported absences
Lens
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Estac Troyes
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Estac Troyes vs Lens?
Lens -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 3.5 goals (1.51).
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Lens?
We estimate: Estac Troyes win 23%, draw 25%, Lens win 52%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes. Referee: H. Ben El Hadj Salem.
Who will be missing?
Estac Troyes: no absences. Lens: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.72); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 43% (odds 2.30).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.8%), then 1–2 (9.8%) and 0–1 (9.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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