Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lille v Lens: 30 October 2026 · 20:05 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Lille), with Jérôme Brisard refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Lille vs Lens: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Lille are 2nd in the table, on 18 points after 9 matches (5W 3D 1L), and Lens are 9th, on 13 points (4W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average Lille score 1.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.8; for Lens the figures are 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lille: 4W 3D 1L, goals 11–6; Lens: 4W 1D 3L, goals 16–12.
- Head to head. From 18 meetings: 11 wins for Lille, 3 wins for Lens and 4 draws, with the goals at 31–14.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (12.7%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.78), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 54% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 48% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 18; Lille 11 wins, 4 draws, Lens 3 wins.
- An average of 2.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Lille 11–6, Lens 16–12.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 48%.
- Out: Lille 4, Lens 6.
Alternative tip: Lille or draw (1X)
Alternative tip: Lille or draw (1X) (probability 65%, best price 1.50). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Lille: H. Igamane, T. Nianzou, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Absent for Lens: N. Celik, J. Chavez, O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Lille vs Lens: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.76 | 3.37 | 2.83 |
| Market average | 2.64 | 3.27 | 2.71 |
| Lowest odds | 2.38 | 3.10 | 2.56 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 1.31 | 71.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.99 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 1.83 | 52.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.64 | 3.48 | 27.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.78 | 1.74 | 53.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.01 | 46.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 30/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Lille 1–1 Lens, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lille 2nd (18 points), Lens 9th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Lille 4W 3D 1L (11:6), Lens 4W 1D 3L (16:12).
- H2H: 18 matches: Lille 11W 4D 3L, goals 31–14.
- Absences: Lille 4, Lens 6.
Who will win Lille vs Lens?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Lille vs Lens: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Lille vs Lens: team news and absences
Lille
- H. Igamaneknee injury · will miss the match
- T. Nianzoured card · will miss the match
- T. Santosknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Uedafoot injury · will miss the match
Lens
- N. Celiknot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Chavezabsence · will miss the match
- O. Edouardgroin injury · will miss the match
- I. Ganiouknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Nawrockiknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Simamuscle injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Lille
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
LilleWDDWLLensLWWWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Lille vs Lens?
Under 2.5 goals (2.02); Lille or draw (1X) (1.50).
Who will win Lille vs Lens?
We estimate: Lille win 36%, draw 29%, Lens win 35%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 30 October 2026, kick-off: 20:05, venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. Referee: Jérôme Brisard.
Who will be missing?
Lille: H. Igamane, T. Nianzou, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Lens: N. Celik, J. Chavez, O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 48% (odds 2.08); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 52% (odds 2.02).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 54% (odds 1.78).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.7%), then 1–0 (10.2%) and 0–1 (9.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.