Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Monaco play Lille at home on 25 October 2026 · 14:00 at Stade Louis II (Monaco); the referee is François Letexier. For us, Monaco (49%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Monaco vs Lille: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Monaco are 7th in the table, on 15 points after 9 matches (4W 3D 2L), and Lille are 2nd, on 18 points (5W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. On average Monaco score 1.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.9; for Lille the figures are 1.4 scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Monaco: 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–6; Lille: 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–5.
- Head to head. From 30 meetings: 11 wins for Monaco, 10 wins for Lille and 9 draws, with the goals at 39–33.
What to expect
For us, Monaco are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and we rate it at 66%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 58% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 55% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 30; Monaco 11 wins, 9 draws, Lille 10 wins.
- An average of 2.4 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Monaco 10–6, Lille 10–5.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 55%.
- Out: Monaco 2, Lille 3.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 58%, best price 1.70). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Monaco: S. Idumbo, E. Dier. Absent for Lille: H. Igamane, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Monaco vs Lille: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.04 | 3.65 | 4.10 |
| Market average | 1.97 | 3.52 | 3.91 |
| Lowest odds | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 77.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.74 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.11 | 45.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.74 | 34.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.61 | 57.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 13:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Monaco 1–1 Lille, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monaco 7th (15 points), Lille 2nd (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Monaco 4W 2D 1L (10:6), Lille 4W 2D 1L (10:5).
- H2H: 30 matches: Monaco 11W 9D 10L, goals 39–33.
- Absences: Monaco 2, Lille 3.
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Monaco vs Lille: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Monaco vs Lille: team news and absences
Monaco
- S. Idumbogroin injury · will miss the match
- E. Diermuscle injury · doubtful
Lille
- H. Igamaneknee injury · will miss the match
- T. Santosknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Uedafoot injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 | Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Monaco
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
MonacoLDLDWLilleWDDWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Monaco vs Lille?
Over 2.5 goals (1.81); Monaco to win (2.04).
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
We estimate: Monaco win 49%, draw 27%, Lille win 24%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 14:00, venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco. Referee: François Letexier.
Who will be missing?
Monaco: S. Idumbo, E. Dier. Lille: H. Igamane, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.81); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 45% (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 58% (odds 1.70).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.3%), then 1–0 (9.8%) and 2–1 (9.6%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.