Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Start play Lillestrøm at home on 1 November 2026 · 16:00 at Sør Arena (Kristiansand); the referee is Ola Hobber Nilsen. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Start vs Lillestrøm: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Start are 16th in the table, on 19 points after 25 matches (5W 4D 16L), and Lillestrøm are 5th, on 42 points (13W 3D 9L).
- Attack and defence. On average Start score 1.1 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.3; for Lillestrøm the figures are 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Start: 5W 4D 15L, goals 26–54; Lillestrøm: 12W 3D 9L, goals 35–33.
- Head to head. From 8 meetings: 1 win for Start, 5 wins for Lillestrøm and 2 draws, with the goals at 6–13.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–2 score estimate, roughly 4 goals in all, and 1–1 (10.6%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 64% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 62% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 8; Start 1 win, 2 draws, Lillestrøm 5 wins.
- An average of 2.4 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Start 26–54, Lillestrøm 35–33.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 62%.
- Out: Start 4, Lillestrøm 3.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 64%, best price 1.50). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Start: J. Husebo, F. Manojlovic, K. Tonnesen, S. Griesbeck. Absent for Lillestrøm: C. Jebara, P. Dahlberg, E. B. Garnas. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Start vs Lillestrøm: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.98 | 3.78 | 2.35 |
| Market average | 2.80 | 3.65 | 2.28 |
| Lowest odds | 2.57 | 3.42 | 2.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 81.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 1.52 | 61.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.56 | 2.44 | 38.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.29 | 41.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.44 | 64.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.70 | 2.59 | 35.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 12:07. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Start 1–1 Lillestrøm, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Start 16th (19 points), Lillestrøm 5th (42 points).
- Form in the competition: Start 5W 4D 15L (26:54), Lillestrøm 12W 3D 9L (35:33).
- H2H: 8 matches: Start 1W 2D 5L, goals 6–13.
- Absences: Start 4, Lillestrøm 3.
Who will win Start vs Lillestrøm?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Start vs Lillestrøm: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Start vs Lillestrøm: team news and absences
Start
- J. Husebofoot injury · will miss the match
- F. Manojlovicabsence · will miss the match
- K. Tonnesenabsence · will miss the match
- S. Griesbeckinjury · doubtful
Lillestrøm
- C. Jebaragroin injury · will miss the match
- P. Dahlberginjury · doubtful
- E. B. Garnasknee injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 25 | 19-2-4 | 64:26 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 19-2-4 | 61:23 | 59 |
| 3 |  Molde | 25 | 13-4-8 | 59:39 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 25 | 13-4-8 | 49:31 | 43 |
| 5 | Lillestrøm | 25 | 13-3-9 | 36:33 | 42 |
| 6 |  Tromsø | 25 | 11-7-7 | 43:38 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 25 | 10-2-13 | 45:42 | 32 |
| 8 |  Vålerenga | 25 | 9-5-11 | 43:46 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:41 | 31 |
| 11 |  Fredrikstad | 25 | 8-5-12 | 29:44 | 29 |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 25 | 7-6-12 | 26:34 | 27 |
| 13 |  Ham-Kam | 25 | 7-6-12 | 35:53 | 27 |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 25 | 5-9-11 | 43:57 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6-5-14 | 29:51 | 23 |
| 16 | Start | 25 | 5-4-16 | 26:55 | 19 |
Recent matches
Start
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
StartLWLLLLillestrømWWWDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Start vs Lillestrøm?
Start +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Start vs Lillestrøm?
We estimate: Start win 33%, draw 26%, Lillestrøm win 41%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 16:00, venue: Sør Arena, Kristiansand. Referee: Ola Hobber Nilsen.
Who will be missing?
Start: J. Husebo, F. Manojlovic, K. Tonnesen, S. Griesbeck. Lillestrøm: C. Jebara, P. Dahlberg, E. B. Garnas. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 62% (odds 1.55); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 38% (odds 2.56).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 64% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.6%), then 1–2 (8.7%) and 2–1 (8.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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