Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is AS Roma against Cagliari on 27 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Olimpico (Rome), and Ermanno Feliciani will referee. AS Roma (73%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
AS Roma vs Cagliari: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. AS Roma are 3rd in the table, on 24 points after 10 matches (7W 3D 0L), and Cagliari are 12th, on 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
- Attack and defence. On average AS Roma score 2.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.8; for Cagliari the figures are 0.8 scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. AS Roma: 5W 3D 0L, goals 19–6; Cagliari: 4W 1D 3L, goals 6–9.
- Head to head. From 29 meetings: 18 wins for AS Roma, 6 wins for Cagliari and 5 draws, with the goals at 57–35.
What to expect
For us, AS Roma are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–0 (14.0%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), and we rate it at 67%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 42% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 54% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 29; AS Roma 18 wins, 5 draws, Cagliari 6 wins.
- An average of 3.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: AS Roma 19–6, Cagliari 6–9.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 54%.
- Out: AS Roma 5, Cagliari 3.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 58%, best price 1.65). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for AS Roma: M. Bah, M. Kone, L. Pellegrini, M. Svilar, P. Dybala. Absent for Cagliari: M. Felici, R. Idrissi, H. Winks. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
AS Roma vs Cagliari: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.33 | 5.51 | 12.10 |
| Market average | 1.31 | 5.27 | 10.47 |
| Lowest odds | 1.29 | 4.94 | 7.53 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.23 | 76.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.75 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.31 | 2.10 | 45.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.04 | 2.86 | 32.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.25 | 2.21 | 42.1% |
| BTTS – no | 1.65 | 1.61 | 57.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 27/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: AS Roma 2–0 Cagliari, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: AS Roma 3rd (24 points), Cagliari 12th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: AS Roma 5W 3D 0L (19:6), Cagliari 4W 1D 3L (6:9).
- H2H: 29 matches: AS Roma 18W 5D 6L, goals 57–35.
- Absences: AS Roma 5, Cagliari 3.
Who will win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
AS Roma vs Cagliari: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
AS Roma vs Cagliari: team news and absences
AS Roma
- M. Bahknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Konemuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Pellegrinithigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Svilarabsence · will miss the match
- P. Dybalacalf injury · doubtful
Cagliari
- M. Feliciknee injury · will miss the match
- R. Idrissiknee injury · will miss the match
- H. Winksback injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
AS Roma
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AS RomaWWDWDCagliariLLLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Cagliari +1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.80); Under 3.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
We estimate: AS Roma win 73%, draw 18%, Cagliari win 9%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 27 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Referee: Ermanno Feliciani.
Who will be missing?
AS Roma: M. Bah, M. Kone, L. Pellegrini, M. Svilar, P. Dybala. Cagliari: M. Felici, R. Idrissi, H. Winks. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.82); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 46% (odds 2.31).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 42% (odds 2.25).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–0 as most likely (14.0%), then 1–0 (12.7%) and 3–0 (10.3%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.