Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Napoli v AS Roma: 24 October 2026 · 17:00 at Maradona Stadium (Naples), with Andrea Colombo, Italy refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Napoli vs AS Roma: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Napoli are 8th in the table, on 14 points after 10 matches (4W 2D 4L), and AS Roma are 3rd, on 24 points (7W 3D 0L).
- Attack and defence. On average Napoli score 1.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.0; for AS Roma the figures are 2.3 scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Napoli: 3W 1D 3L, goals 10–7; AS Roma: 5W 2D 0L, goals 16–3.
- Head to head. From 33 meetings: 15 wins for Napoli, 9 wins for AS Roma and 9 draws, with the goals at 49–37.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (12.2%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.67), and we rate it at 58%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 58% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 52% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 33; Napoli 15 wins, 9 draws, AS Roma 9 wins.
- An average of 2.6 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Napoli 10–7, AS Roma 16–3.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 52%.
- Out: Napoli 4, AS Roma 5.
Alternative tip: Draw or AS Roma (X2)
Alternative tip: Draw or AS Roma (X2) (probability 64%, best price 1.52). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Napoli: Alisson Santos, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli. Absent for AS Roma: M. Bah, P. Dybala, M. Kone, L. Pellegrini, M. Svilar. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Napoli vs AS Roma: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.85 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Market average | 2.68 | 3.34 | 2.68 |
| Lowest odds | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.55 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.26 | 75.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.84 | 52.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 2.00 | 47.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.11 | 3.01 | 31.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.61 | 57.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.20 | 42.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 13:13. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Napoli 1–1 AS Roma, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Napoli 8th (14 points), AS Roma 3rd (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Napoli 3W 1D 3L (10:7), AS Roma 5W 2D 0L (16:3).
- H2H: 33 matches: Napoli 15W 9D 9L, goals 49–37.
- Absences: Napoli 4, AS Roma 5.
Who will win Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Napoli vs AS Roma: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Napoli vs AS Roma: team news and absences
Napoli
- Alisson Santosmuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Buongiornoknee injury · will miss the match
- David Neresthigh injury · will miss the match
- C. Favasulithigh injury · will miss the match
AS Roma
- M. Bahknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Dybalacalf injury · will miss the match
- M. Konemuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Pellegrinithigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Svilarabsence · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Napoli
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
NapoliLWDLWAS RomaWWDWDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Napoli vs AS Roma?
Over 2.5 goals (1.93); Draw or AS Roma (X2) (1.52).
Who will win Napoli vs AS Roma?
We estimate: Napoli win 36%, draw 29%, AS Roma win 36%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 17:00, venue: Maradona Stadium, Naples. Referee: Andrea Colombo, Italy.
Who will be missing?
Napoli: Alisson Santos, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli. AS Roma: M. Bah, P. Dybala, M. Kone, L. Pellegrini, M. Svilar. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.93); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 48% (odds 2.05).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 58% (odds 1.67).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.2%), then 0–1 (9.1%) and 1–0 (9.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.