Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Monza v Cagliari: 19 October 2026 · 17:30 at Stadio Brianteo (Monza), with Andrea Calzavara, Italy refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Monza vs Cagliari: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Monza are 18th in the table, on 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L), and Cagliari are 12th, on 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (12.8%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
What stands out is that the table favours the Cagliari, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.81), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 53% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 46% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 46%.
- Out: Monza 0, Cagliari 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 53%, best price 1.83). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Monza: no absences. Absent for Cagliari: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Monza vs Cagliari: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.74 | 3.24 | 3.06 |
| Market average | 2.51 | 3.14 | 2.91 |
| Lowest odds | 2.38 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 70.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.06 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.77 | 53.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.80 | 3.60 | 26.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.83 | 1.77 | 52.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.12 | 1.98 | 47.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 19/10/26, 16:28. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.2%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Monza 1–1 Cagliari, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Monza 18th (7 points), Cagliari 12th (13 points).
- Absences: Monza 0, Cagliari 0.
Who will win Monza vs Cagliari?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Monza vs Cagliari: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Monza vs Cagliari: team news and absences
Monza
- No reported absences
Cagliari
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Monza
Home and away
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Monza vs Cagliari?
Monza +0 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Under 2.5 goals (1.81).
Who will win Monza vs Cagliari?
We estimate: Monza win 38%, draw 30%, Cagliari win 32%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 19 October 2026, kick-off: 17:30, venue: Stadio Brianteo, Monza. Referee: Andrea Calzavara, Italy.
Who will be missing?
Monza: no absences. Cagliari: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.18); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 54% (odds 1.81).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 53% (odds 1.83).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.8%), then 1–0 (10.7%) and 0–1 (9.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.