AS Roma vs Sassuolo: prediction, tip and odds, 7 November 2026, Serie A

AS Roma vs Sassuolo betting prediction

Can Roma convert their dominance into a comfortable victory margin against Sassuolo? That is the core issue in this Serie A Matchweek 11 clash. The Giallorossi welcome Sassuolo to the Olimpico in Rome on 7 November 2026, with kick-off at 19:45. Roma sit third with 24 points after 10 outings. Sassuolo are 17th, collecting 8 points over that same span. The distance between the two sides is considerable, and the real question is how much of it the odds already account for.

Roma's form and the home record that backs it

Across their last five games in every tournament, Roma collected four victories, lost none, and scored 18 while conceding 7. Their 3-3 result at Napoli proves they can be dragged back, yet the 5-2 rout of Udinese proves they capitalise on teams that leave gaps. In this league, they have recorded 4 wins and 1 draw at home without a single loss, with 14 goals scored and 5 conceded. Those home numbers come from Serie A alone, whereas the five-game sequence includes all competitions, so the two samples are not measuring the same thing. We still find the direction convincing.

Sassuolo's away struggles in Serie A

Over their last five matches Sassuolo have collected no wins, one draw and four losses, netting 7 goals while letting in 17. Their most recent outing ended 2-4 at home against Fiorentina. Across the league campaign they sit on 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats. Away from home the numbers are even weaker: no wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 12 conceded. Given that away form, we would not expect them to pick up anything in Rome.

What the meetings say, and what they do not

Roma have the edge in this rivalry: across the last 24 meetings they have taken 13 wins, 9 draws and just 2 defeats, finding the net 45 times against Sassuolo's 26. Both of the latest clashes ended in Roma's favour, a 2-0 home success on 10 January 2026 and a game on 26 October 2025 logged as Sassuolo 0-1 AS Roma. Still, a history this lopsided tells us little about how comfortably Roma will win, and that question is the one our main bet hinges on.

Sassuolo without five players, Roma with no reported absentees

Roma come into this with a clean injury report, with no absentees flagged. Sassuolo, on the other hand, are without I. Koné, E. Pieragnolo, Fali Candé, D. Boloca and Y. Paz. Losing that many players hurts a team that is already struggling for points, so we expect Roma to seize control early and press from the opening kick. The real question is how much of that pressure turns into goals.

What the bookmakers expect from this match

Roma are heavily backed by the market. Their top price is 1.35, which implies a 72% chance, while a draw is 16% (best price 6.25) and a Sassuolo win 11% (best price 9.18). The book takes 5.7% overall on the result market. Looking at the handicap lines, AS Roma -1 sits at 66% with odds of 1.45, AS Roma -1.5 at 53% with 1.92, and AS Roma -2 at 40% with 2.43. These numbers reflect what the market expects, not what has already happened between the teams. On totals, over 2.5 goals is priced at 69% with odds of 1.38, and the model projects 3 goals for Roma and 1 for Sassuolo. The most probable exact scorelines are 2-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.2%) and 3-0 (8.4%).

Best bet for AS Roma vs Sassuolo: AS Roma -1.5

Top pick: AS Roma -1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.92, probability 53%. To cover -1.5, Roma need a winning margin of at least two goals. Victories by 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 cash the stake, while 2-1, 1-0 and 1-1 lose it.

Our case rests on form: Roma have taken four wins from their last five without a single defeat, whereas Sassuolo have not won any of their recent matches. Roma sit third with 24 points, while Sassuolo are 17th with 8. In this competition, Roma's home record reads 4 wins, 1 draw and no losses. Across 24 previous meetings, Roma have claimed 13 victories to Sassuolo's 2. The bookmakers price the tip at 53% with the best available odds of 1.92, yet in our view Roma are the stronger side by more than that figure indicates. The main risk is a narrow margin: a 2-1 or 1-0 result is enough to cost this bet.

Second tip: both sides to find the net at 1.67

Tip number two is Both Teams to Score, priced at 1.67, with a 57% chance. It collects on 2-1, 3-1 and 1-1, and falls short on 2-0, 3-0 and 1-0. Keep in mind that 3-1 pays out on both tips, while 2-1 and 1-1 pay out on this one only.

Roma have landed in three of their last five matches where both sides found the net, and Sassuolo have done so in four of theirs. Roma have scored in every one of their last five, whereas Sassuolo have blanked just once in that span. With an expected total of around four goals, this looks like a game where Sassuolo should get on the scoresheet. The market rates it at 57% with the best price at 1.67.
Back it only if you believe Sassuolo's scoring form will hold on the road in Rome, and keep the stake small.

Other bets we would consider

• AS Roma -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.20, chance 79%. Half the stake sits on AS Roma -0.5 and half on AS Roma +0. The -0.5 portion pays only if Roma prevail by at least a single goal margin; the +0 portion collects on any Roma victory, gets its money back if the match is drawn, and forfeits the stake if Roma are beaten. Of all the selections here, this one carries the lowest risk.
• AS Roma -0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.30, chance 74%. A one-goal win is all Roma require, so this stays a reasonable cover even if their finishing dips.
• Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, chance 69%. It fits neatly with a projected total near four goals and works alongside our second tip.

Our closing take on Roma vs Sassuolo

Roma are the stronger team on the league table and at home, and they also hold the edge in the head-to-head record, so the odds point the same way. The real question is how many goals they win by. We like AS Roma -1.5 at 1.92. For a bet that still pays out on a 2-1 or 1-1 result, consider backing both teams to score, which is worth a closer look. Either way, keep the stake small, since a Roma win by a single goal is precisely the outcome that would undermine our main pick.