Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lazio play Cagliari at home on 1 November 2026 · 14:00 at Stadio Olimpico (Rome); the referee is Andrea Colombo. For us, Lazio (64%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Lazio vs Cagliari: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Lazio are 1st in the table, on 28 points after 10 matches (9W 1D 0L), and Cagliari are 12th, on 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
- Attack and defence. On average Lazio score 2.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.8; for Cagliari the figures are 0.9 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lazio: 8W 1D 0L, goals 22–7; Cagliari: 4W 1D 4L, goals 8–13.
- Head to head. From 29 meetings: 23 wins for Lazio, 2 wins for Cagliari and 4 draws, with the goals at 57–20.
What to expect
For us, Lazio are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–0 (12.5%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.87), and we rate it at 53%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 49% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 53% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 29; Lazio 23 wins, 4 draws, Cagliari 2 wins.
- An average of 2.7 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Lazio 22–7, Cagliari 8–13.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 53%.
- Out: Lazio 4, Cagliari 2.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 51%, best price 1.85). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella. Absent for Cagliari: M. Felici, R. Idrissi. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Lazio vs Cagliari: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.53 | 4.60 | 7.52 |
| Market average | 1.47 | 4.40 | 6.75 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 75.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 1.80 | 53.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.03 | 47.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.21 | 2.99 | 31.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.91 | 48.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.85 | 1.81 | 51.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 12:55. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Lazio 1–0 Cagliari, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lazio 1st (28 points), Cagliari 12th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Lazio 8W 1D 0L (22:7), Cagliari 4W 1D 4L (8:13).
- H2H: 29 matches: Lazio 23W 4D 2L, goals 57–20.
- Absences: Lazio 4, Cagliari 2.
Who will win Lazio vs Cagliari?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Lazio vs Cagliari: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Lazio vs Cagliari: team news and absences
Lazio
- A. Furlanettoknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Gudmundssonshoulder injury · will miss the match
- A. Marusicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Rovellacalf injury · will miss the match
Cagliari
- M. Feliciknee injury · will miss the match
- R. Idrissiknee injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Lazio
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
LazioWWWWWCagliariLLLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Lazio vs Cagliari?
Over 2.5 goals (1.87); Lazio to win (1.53).
Who will win Lazio vs Cagliari?
We estimate: Lazio win 64%, draw 22%, Cagliari win 14%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 14:00, venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Referee: Andrea Colombo.
Who will be missing?
Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella. Cagliari: M. Felici, R. Idrissi. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.87); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 47% (odds 2.11).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 49% (odds 1.95).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (12.5%), then 2–0 (12.2%) and 1–1 (10.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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