Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sassuolo play Fiorentina at home on 2 November 2026 · 17:30 at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia); the referee is Matteo Marcenaro. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Sassuolo are 17th in the table, on 8 points after 10 matches (2W 2D 6L), and Fiorentina are 16th, on 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. On average Sassuolo score 1.6 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.4; for Fiorentina the figures are 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sassuolo: 2W 2D 5L, goals 14–22; Fiorentina: 1W 2D 6L, goals 11–21.
- Head to head. From 25 meetings: 8 wins for Sassuolo, 10 wins for Fiorentina and 7 draws, with the goals at 36–44.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–2 score estimate, roughly 4 goals in all, and 1–1 (10.4%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.45), and we rate it at 66%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 66% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 63% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 25; Sassuolo 8 wins, 7 draws, Fiorentina 10 wins.
- An average of 3.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Sassuolo 14–22, Fiorentina 11–21.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 63%.
- Out: Sassuolo 5, Fiorentina 5.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals (probability 63%, best price 1.57). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Sassuolo: D. Boloca, I. Kone, F. Leysen, Y. Paz, K. Thorstvedt. Absent for Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, L. Ranieri, R. Sottil. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.92 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Market average | 2.80 | 3.64 | 2.39 |
| Lowest odds | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 82.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.50 | 62.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.68 | 2.53 | 37.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.26 | 42.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.42 | 65.6% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.70 | 34.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 2/11/26, 16:22. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sassuolo 1–1 Fiorentina, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Sassuolo 17th (8 points), Fiorentina 16th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Sassuolo 2W 2D 5L (14:22), Fiorentina 1W 2D 6L (11:21).
- H2H: 25 matches: Sassuolo 8W 7D 10L, goals 36–44.
- Absences: Sassuolo 5, Fiorentina 5.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: team news and absences
Sassuolo
- D. Bolocamuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Konebroken leg · will miss the match
- F. Leysenknee injury · will miss the match
- Y. Pazknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Thorstvedtred card · will miss the match
Fiorentina
- A. Attaabsence · will miss the match
- F. Parisiknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Pongracicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Ranieriabsence · will miss the match
- R. Sottilback injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Sassuolo
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
SassuoloLLLLDFiorentinaWDLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Under 3.5 goals (1.71); Draw or Fiorentina (X2) (1.47).
Who will win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
We estimate: Sassuolo win 34%, draw 26%, Fiorentina win 40%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 2 November 2026, kick-off: 17:30, venue: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia. Referee: Matteo Marcenaro.
Who will be missing?
Sassuolo: D. Boloca, I. Kone, F. Leysen, Y. Paz, K. Thorstvedt. Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, L. Ranieri, R. Sottil. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 63% (odds 1.57); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 37% (odds 2.68).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 66% (odds 1.45).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.4%), then 1–2 (8.6%) and 2–1 (8.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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