Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–6. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sassuolo play Lazio at home on 27 October 2026 · 17:30 at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia); the referee is Luca Zufferli. For us, Lazio (46%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Sassuolo are 17th in the table, on 8 points after 10 matches (2W 2D 6L), and Lazio are 1st, on 28 points (9W 1D 0L).
- Attack and defence. On average Sassuolo score 1.5 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.0; for Lazio the figures are 2.0 scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sassuolo: 2W 2D 4L, goals 12–16; Lazio: 7W 1D 0L, goals 16–5.
- Head to head. From 26 meetings: 6 wins for Sassuolo, 15 wins for Lazio and 5 draws, with the goals at 31–52.
What to expect
For us, Lazio are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 59% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 56% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 26; Sassuolo 6 wins, 5 draws, Lazio 15 wins.
- An average of 3.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Sassuolo 12–16, Lazio 16–5.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 56%.
- Out: Sassuolo 5, Lazio 5.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 59%, best price 1.62). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Sassuolo: D. Boloca, J. Idzes, I. Kone, F. Leysen, Y. Paz. Absent for Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella, A. Pinamonti. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.72 | 3.70 | 2.18 |
| Market average | 3.46 | 3.54 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.05 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.20 | 78.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 1.69 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.31 | 2.18 | 43.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.66 | 35.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.56 | 59.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.29 | 40.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 27/10/26, 16:21. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sassuolo 1–1 Lazio, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sassuolo 17th (8 points), Lazio 1st (28 points).
- Form in the competition: Sassuolo 2W 2D 4L (12:16), Lazio 7W 1D 0L (16:5).
- H2H: 26 matches: Sassuolo 6W 5D 15L, goals 31–52.
- Absences: Sassuolo 5, Lazio 5.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Sassuolo vs Lazio: team news and absences
Sassuolo
- D. Bolocamuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Idzesmuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Konebroken leg · will miss the match
- F. Leysenknee injury · will miss the match
- Y. Pazknee injury · will miss the match
Lazio
- A. Furlanettoknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Gudmundssonshoulder injury · will miss the match
- A. Marusicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Rovellacalf injury · will miss the match
- A. Pinamontiillness · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Sassuolo
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
SassuoloLLLLDLazioWWWWWHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Lazio -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Sassuolo vs Lazio?
We estimate: Sassuolo win 28%, draw 27%, Lazio win 46%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 27 October 2026, kick-off: 17:30, venue: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia. Referee: Luca Zufferli.
Who will be missing?
Sassuolo: D. Boloca, J. Idzes, I. Kone, F. Leysen, Y. Paz. Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella, A. Pinamonti. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.74); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 44% (odds 2.31).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.3%), then 1–2 (9.4%) and 0–1 (9.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.