Bet with Freshbet →AZ Alkmaar v Juventus: 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar） (Alkmaar), with Damian Sylwestrzak refereeing. We have Juventus (48%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus betting prediction
Can AZ Alkmaar keep Juventus from getting the win the market expects? We think they can. Our tip for the Europa League league-phase game at the AFAS Stadion on 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00, is AZ Alkmaar +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.90, with a chance of 52%.
Two sides level on points, apart on goals
AZ Alkmaar are 10th with 6 points from 3 matches in this competition, with 2 wins, 1 defeat and goals 6:2. Juventus are 7th with 7 points from the same three games, 2 wins and a draw, goals 9:3. The table looks close, but the goal columns say more. AZ average 2.0 scored and 0.7 conceded here. Juventus average 3.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Juventus are the more dangerous attacking side, and nobody at this stage should pretend otherwise.
What we do like is the home record. AZ have won their only home match in this competition, 2:1, and have not lost one. Juventus have also won their only away game, 2:1, but one result on the road is a thin base to build on.
Recent form tells a messier story
AZ's last five matches in all competitions brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. The 4-0 win at Ararat-Armenia was the most convincing result of that run, and the 2-2 draw at Cambuur showed they can score away from home. The problem is the 2-0 home defeat to Twente.
Juventus were more uneven. Their last five brought the same 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, but with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. The 3-0 home loss to Lazio and the 2-0 defeat at Genoa are the results that worry us. Their last match, a 2-0 home win over Napoli, is the one we weigh most heavily, because it was the most recent evidence of how they go about a game at home.
No history between the clubs, so the squads decide it
There is no earlier meeting between these two clubs on record. That leaves us with current form and team news, and the team news is where the price looks most generous to Juventus.
AZ are without J. Hornkamp, S. Resink, K. Smit, H. Verhulst and J. Zoet, which is five players and a real loss. Juventus are missing far more: Z. Celik, F. Conceicao, N. Gonzalez, K. Grabara, M. Locatelli, A. Milik, D. Rugani, K. Thuram, K. Yildiz, E. Zhegrova and W. McKennie, eleven names in all. We still expect Juventus to be the stronger side on the day. We just do not think eleven absences leave them as far ahead as the odds say.
What the prices say about this match
The bookmakers give Juventus a 47% chance to win, with best odds of 2.04. AZ are at 26% with best odds of 3.80, and the draw is at 26% with best odds of 3.77. The margin on the match result is 6.5%, so the market is not handing out much value on the headline line. Those figures describe what the bookmakers expect, and they expect Juventus to win.
The handicap is where we see the gap. AZ +0.5 carries a 52% chance at best odds of 1.90, and Juventus -0.5 sits at 48% with 2.05. In other words, the market already sees this as close to a coin flip once AZ get half a goal. We would have been more worried if AZ +0.5 were priced like a longshot. At 1.90 it looks like a fair number for a home side that can keep a game level.
Our main tip and how it settles
Our main tip is AZ Alkmaar +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.90, chance 52%. At +0.5 the bet wins unless AZ lose by 1 or more, so the only result that loses it is an AZ defeat. A draw wins it, and so does an AZ win.
On the likeliest exact scores, the bet wins on 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1, and loses on 0-1, 1-2 and 0-2. We are comfortable with that split. The market's most likely scores include 1-1, which wins for us, and 0-1, which does not. The home record, the 52% chance and the Juventus absences are our reasons for siding with AZ here.
The second tip and the bets around it
Our second tip is Both teams to score at odds 1.73, chance 56%. The argument is simple: the expected total is about 3 goals, and the market gives this bet 56% at best odds of 1.73. It wins on 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1, and loses on 0-1, 0-2 and 1-0. We would back it at a smaller stake than the main tip, because a single clean sheet on either side kills it, and Juventus have kept a clean sheet in two of their last five matches in all competitions.
For those who want something safer alongside the main tip, AZ Alkmaar +1 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.48 with a 67% chance is the one we like. At +1 the bet wins unless AZ lose by 2 or more, and a defeat by exactly one goal returns the stake. Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.26 (76%) is the most secure goal line on the card, and we would use it as a small accumulator leg rather than a single. AZ Alkmaar +1.25 at odds 1.38 (71%) is a cautious way to back the home side with more room than our main tip, since half the stake sits on +1 and half on +1.5.
We end on the reasons. AZ have a home record in this competition that nobody has tested much, the market prices them as an underdog that is closer than it looks, and Juventus arrive without eleven listed players. None of that guarantees anything, but it is enough for us to back AZ to stay within a goal.
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.79 | 3.82 | 2.05 |
| Market average | 3.60 | 3.64 | 2.00 |
| Lowest odds | 3.33 | 3.29 | 1.95 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.24 | 76.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.81 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 2.02 | 47.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.96 | 31.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.67 | 56.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.12 | 44.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 08:13. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Juventus, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: AZ Alkmaar 10th (6 points), Juventus 7th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: AZ Alkmaar 2W 0D 1L (6:2), Juventus 2W 1D 0L (9:3).
- Absences: AZ Alkmaar 5, Juventus 11.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus: team news and absences
AZ Alkmaar
- J. Hornkampinjury · will miss the match
- S. Resinkknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Smitinjury · will miss the match
- H. Verhulstnot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Zoetnot in the squad · will miss the match
Juventus
- Z. Celikmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Conceicaoshoulder injury · will miss the match
- N. Gonzalezcalf injury · will miss the match
- K. Grabaraknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Locatelliknee injury · will miss the match
- W. McKenniegroin injury · will miss the match
- A. Miliknot in the squad · will miss the match
- D. Ruganinot in the squad · will miss the match
- K. Thuramknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Yildizfoot injury · will miss the match
- E. Zhegrovanot in the squad · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 4 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 |  Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
AZ Alkmaar
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AZ AlkmaarWWLJuventusDWWReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
AZ Alkmaar +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.89); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
We estimate: AZ Alkmaar win 26%, draw 26%, Juventus win 48%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 5 November 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar. Referee: Damian Sylwestrzak.
Who will be missing?
AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, S. Resink, K. Smit, H. Verhulst, J. Zoet. Juventus: Z. Celik, F. Conceicao, N. Gonzalez, K. Grabara, M. Locatelli, W. McKennie, A. Milik, D. Rugani, K. Thuram, K. Yildiz, E. Zhegrova. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.85); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 47% (odds 2.08).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 56% (odds 1.73).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.8%), then 0–1 (10.2%) and 1–2 (9.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.