Bet with Freshbet →Kilmarnock play Aberdeen at home on 21 November 2026 · 15:00 at Rugby Park (Kilmarnock). For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Kilmarnock are 11th in the table, on 9 points after 12 matches (2W 3D 7L), and Aberdeen are 10th, on 11 points (3W 2D 6L).
- Head to head. From 55 meetings: 11 wins for Kilmarnock, 33 wins for Aberdeen and 11 draws, with the goals at 47–85.
What to expect
For us, Aberdeen are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.55), and we rate it at 62%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 61% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 59% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 55; Kilmarnock 11 wins, 11 draws, Aberdeen 33 wins.
- An average of 2.4 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 59%.
- Out: Kilmarnock 0, Aberdeen 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 61%, best price 1.55). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Kilmarnock: no absences. Absent for Aberdeen: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.12 |
| Market average | 3.13 | 3.66 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.18 | 78.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 1.61 | 58.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.30 | 41.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.55 | 2.45 | 38.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.53 | 60.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.36 | 39.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 03:38. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.2%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Kilmarnock 1–1 Aberdeen, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Kilmarnock 11th (9 points), Aberdeen 10th (11 points).
- H2H: 55 matches: Kilmarnock 11W 11D 33L, goals 47–85.
- Absences: Kilmarnock 0, Aberdeen 0.
Who will win Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen: team news and absences
Kilmarnock
- No reported absences
Aberdeen
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 12 | 9-1-2 | 27:10 | 28 |
| 2 |  Rangers | 11 | 7-3-1 | 19:9 | 24 |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 11 | 6-2-3 | 24:17 | 20 |
| 4 |  Falkirk | 12 | 5-3-4 | 15:12 | 18 |
| 5 |  Dundee | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:13 | 17 |
| 6 |  Dundee United | 11 | 4-4-3 | 16:16 | 16 |
| 7 |  ST Johnstone | 12 | 3-5-4 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 8 |  ST Mirren | 12 | 4-2-6 | 12:20 | 14 |
| 9 |  Motherwell | 12 | 3-3-6 | 14:20 | 12 |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:14 | 11 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:28 | 9 |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 11 | 2-2-7 | 11:17 | 8 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?
Kilmarnock +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Under 3.5 goals (1.55).
Who will win Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?
We estimate: Kilmarnock win 30%, draw 25%, Aberdeen win 45%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 21 November 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: Rugby Park, Kilmarnock.
Who will be missing?
Kilmarnock: no absences. Aberdeen: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.62); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 41% (odds 2.35).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 61% (odds 1.55).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.9%), then 1–2 (9.2%) and 0–1 (8.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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