Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Lazio against Parma on 24 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Olimpico (Rome), and Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy will referee. Lazio (66%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Lazio vs Parma: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Lazio are 1st in the table, on 28 points after 10 matches (9W 1D 0L), and Parma are 15th, on 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. On average Lazio score 2.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.6; for Parma the figures are 0.6 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lazio: 6W 1D 0L, goals 14–4; Parma: 1W 1D 5L, goals 4–13.
- Head to head. From 22 meetings: 15 wins for Lazio, 2 wins for Parma and 5 draws, with the goals at 38–18.
What to expect
For us, Lazio are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–0 (13.1%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick BTTS: no (odds 1.75), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 46% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 51% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 22; Lazio 15 wins, 5 draws, Parma 2 wins.
- An average of 2.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Lazio 14–4, Parma 4–13.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 51%.
- Out: Lazio 4, Parma 4.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 54%, best price 1.75). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella. Absent for Parma: P. Almqvist, N. Elphege, H. Nicolussi Caviglia, L. Valenti. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Lazio vs Parma: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.49 | 4.60 | 8.57 |
| Market average | 1.44 | 4.46 | 7.81 |
| Lowest odds | 1.40 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.27 | 73.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.94 | 1.88 | 50.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 1.93 | 49.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.18 | 29.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.08 | 2.03 | 45.8% |
| BTTS – no | 1.75 | 1.72 | 54.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.0%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Lazio 1–0 Parma, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lazio 1st (28 points), Parma 15th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Lazio 6W 1D 0L (14:4), Parma 1W 1D 5L (4:13).
- H2H: 22 matches: Lazio 15W 5D 2L, goals 38–18.
- Absences: Lazio 4, Parma 4.
Who will win Lazio vs Parma?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Lazio vs Parma: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Lazio vs Parma: team news and absences
Lazio
- A. Furlanettoknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Gudmundssonshoulder injury · will miss the match
- A. Marusicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Rovellacalf injury · will miss the match
Parma
- P. Almqvistcalf injury · will miss the match
- N. Elphegeillness · will miss the match
- H. Nicolussi Cavigliathigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Valentiabsence · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 | Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Lazio
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
LazioWWWWWParmaWDLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Lazio vs Parma?
Parma +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.93); BTTS: no (1.75).
Who will win Lazio vs Parma?
We estimate: Lazio win 66%, draw 21%, Parma win 12%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Referee: Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy.
Who will be missing?
Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella. Parma: P. Almqvist, N. Elphege, H. Nicolussi Caviglia, L. Valenti. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 51% (odds 1.94); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 49% (odds 2.00).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 46% (odds 2.08).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (13.1%), then 2–0 (12.8%) and 1–1 (9.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.