Bet with Freshbet →Marseille v Le Mans: 22 November 2026 · 19:45 at Orange Vélodrome (Marseille). We have Marseille (67%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Marseille vs Le Mans: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Marseille are 6th in the table, on 15 points after 9 matches (5W 0D 4L), and Le Mans are 17th, on 7 points (1W 4D 4L).
What to expect
For us, Marseille are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.7%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 66%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 58% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 66% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 66%.
- Out: Marseille 0, Le Mans 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 58%, best price 1.61). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Marseille: no absences. Absent for Le Mans: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Marseille vs Le Mans: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.47 | 5.24 | 7.00 |
| Market average | 1.43 | 5.02 | 6.74 |
| Lowest odds | 1.38 | 4.75 | 6.32 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.11 | 84.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.44 | 65.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.76 | 34.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.26 | 2.15 | 44.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.61 | 1.60 | 58.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.27 | 2.22 | 41.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 03:22. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Marseille 2–1 Le Mans, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Marseille 6th (15 points), Le Mans 17th (7 points).
- Absences: Marseille 0, Le Mans 0.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Mans?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Marseille vs Le Mans: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Marseille vs Le Mans: team news and absences
Marseille
- No reported absences
Le Mans
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Marseille
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Marseille vs Le Mans?
Under 3.5 goals (1.82); Marseille to win (1.47).
Who will win Marseille vs Le Mans?
We estimate: Marseille win 67%, draw 19%, Le Mans win 14%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 22 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Orange Vélodrome, Marseille.
Who will be missing?
Marseille: no absences. Le Mans: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 66% (odds 1.50); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 34% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 58% (odds 1.61).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.7%), then 2–0 (9.7%) and 1–1 (8.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.