Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Monza against Napoli on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Brianteo (Monza), and Giovanni Ayroldi will referee. Napoli (56%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Monza vs Napoli: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Monza are 18th in the table, on 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L), and Napoli are 8th, on 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average Monza score 1.9 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.3; for Napoli the figures are 1.6 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Monza: 2W 1D 5L, goals 15–18; Napoli: 3W 2D 3L, goals 13–10.
- Head to head. From 7 meetings: 1 win for Monza, 5 wins for Napoli and 1 draw, with the goals at 5–15.
What to expect
For us, Napoli are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.4%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.49), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 56% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 57% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 7; Monza 1 win, 1 draw, Napoli 5 wins.
- An average of 2.9 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Monza 15–18, Napoli 13–10.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 57%.
- Out: Monza 4, Napoli 6.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals (probability 57%, best price 1.71). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Monza: M. Folorunsho, Y. Maye, M. Pessina, J. Ziolkowski. Absent for Napoli: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli, L. Spinazzola. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Monza vs Napoli: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.89 | 4.06 | 1.71 |
| Market average | 4.78 | 4.04 | 1.71 |
| Lowest odds | 4.70 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.20 | 78.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 1.69 | 56.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.24 | 2.21 | 43.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.69 | 35.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.66 | 55.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.11 | 2.11 | 44.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Monza 1–1 Napoli, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monza 18th (7 points), Napoli 8th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Monza 2W 1D 5L (15:18), Napoli 3W 2D 3L (13:10).
- H2H: 7 matches: Monza 1W 1D 5L, goals 5–15.
- Absences: Monza 4, Napoli 6.
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Monza vs Napoli: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Monza vs Napoli: team news and absences
Monza
- M. Folorunshoabsence · will miss the match
- Y. Mayemuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Pessinaknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Ziolkowskifoot injury · will miss the match
Napoli
- Alisson Santosmuscle injury · will miss the match
- B. Badiashileinjury · will miss the match
- A. Buongiornoknee injury · will miss the match
- David Neresthigh injury · will miss the match
- C. Favasulithigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Spinazzolathigh injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Monza
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
MonzaLLLWLNapoliLWDLWHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Monza vs Napoli?
Napoli -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Under 3.5 goals (1.49).
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
We estimate: Monza win 20%, draw 24%, Napoli win 56%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 28 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Stadio Brianteo, Monza. Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi.
Who will be missing?
Monza: M. Folorunsho, Y. Maye, M. Pessina, J. Ziolkowski. Napoli: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli, L. Spinazzola. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.71); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 43% (odds 2.24).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 56% (odds 1.67).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.4%), then 0–1 (9.9%) and 1–2 (9.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.