Bet with Freshbet →It is Newcastle against Arsenal on 21 November 2026 · 17:30 at St. James' Park (Newcastle). Arsenal (59%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Newcastle are 13th in the table, on 11 points after 9 matches (3W 2D 4L), and Arsenal are 1st, on 24 points (8W 0D 1L).
What to expect
For us, Arsenal are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 54% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 56% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 56%.
- Out: Newcastle 0, Arsenal 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals (probability 56%, best price 1.76). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Newcastle: no absences. Absent for Arsenal: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 5.65 | 4.42 | 1.65 |
| Market average | 5.22 | 4.11 | 1.60 |
| Lowest odds | 4.84 | 3.77 | 1.52 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 1.21 | 77.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.71 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.23 | 2.18 | 44.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.78 | 2.74 | 34.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.72 | 54.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.07 | 2.03 | 45.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 03:43. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Newcastle 1–1 Arsenal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newcastle 13th (11 points), Arsenal 1st (24 points).
- Absences: Newcastle 0, Arsenal 0.
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Newcastle vs Arsenal: team news and absences
Newcastle
- No reported absences
Arsenal
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Newcastle +1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.56); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
We estimate: Newcastle win 18%, draw 23%, Arsenal win 59%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 21 November 2026, kick-off: 17:30, venue: St. James' Park, Newcastle.
Who will be missing?
Newcastle: no absences. Arsenal: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.76); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 44% (odds 2.23).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 54% (odds 1.75).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.2%), then 0–1 (10.2%) and 1–2 (10.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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