Bet with Freshbet →Sparta Praha play Bournemouth at home on 5 November 2026 · 17:45 at Stadion Letná (Prague); the referee is Erik Lambrechts. For us, Bournemouth (64%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth betting prediction
We head to Stadion Letná on 5 November 2026 for what looks like a classic clash of ambition versus modesty. Sparta Praha have barely scraped a point at home, while Bournemouth arrive on a perfect run, having won every game so far. The odds make the English side heavy favourites, but the Asian handicap offered by the market gives us a nuanced way to back them.
Sparta Praha’s home fortunes
Sparta sit 16th in the Europa League table with just four points from three matches. Their overall record is balanced – one win, one draw and one loss – and they have scored five goals while conceding three, averaging 1.7 per game and letting in only one. At home, however, the picture is bleaker: they have yet to taste victory, registering a single draw and no defeats, with a modest 1‑1 goal return.
Recent form offers a mixed signal. After a goalless stalemate against Bohemians 1905 on 1 November, they produced a dominant 5‑1 win over Slovácko on 25 October. Prior to that they fell 1‑0 away to Olympiakos Piraeus and drew 0‑0 with Baník Ostrava, before a 1‑1 home draw with Lillestrøm. The ability to score in bursts is evident, yet defensive solidity has slipped at times, especially against stronger opposition.
Bournemouth’s away dominance
Across the competition Bournemouth sit comfortably in third place, having amassed nine points from three straight wins. Their attack is prolific – eight goals scored and just one conceded – translating to 2.7 goals per match while allowing a scant 0.3. On foreign soil they are unbeaten, with a solitary win (2‑1) and a flawless defensive record.
The English side’s recent fixtures underline their confidence. They have dispatched Sunderland 2‑0, AC Milan 3‑0, and Manchester United 3‑0 in quick succession, before a 2‑0 victory over Leeds. Each match has reinforced their defensive rigidity and attacking fluency, suggesting they can impose their style even away from home.
Missing pieces
Sparta will be without a sizeable contingent: M. Andersen, A. Karabec, J. Mercado, O. Penxa, M. Rynes, A. Sevinsky and E. Uchenna. Bournemouth also face a long list of absentees, including M. Aarons, J. Araujo, F. Forster, D. Jebbison, V. Milosavljevic, J. Sánchez, A. Scott and A. Toth. The depth of both squads will be tested, but Bournemouth’s recent form suggests they can cope with the missing players.
What the odds tell us
Bookmakers give Sparta a 16 % chance of winning (odds 6.50) and a 21 % chance of a draw (odds 4.72), while Bournemouth enjoy a 63 % win probability (odds 1.52). The main tip on the page is Bournemouth -0.75 at odds 1.64, a 59 % implied chance. This Asian handicap splits the stake between Bournemouth -1 and Bournemouth -0.5: a one‑goal win returns the half staked on -1 (as a stake is refunded) and wins the half on -0.5, while a win by two or more loses the -1 portion and wins the -0.5 portion in full.
The second tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, reflecting a 61 % chance that the match will stay below four goals. Both selections align with the statistical expectations: Bournemouth are likely to win by a single goal, keeping the total under four.
Other betting angles
- Draw or Bournemouth (X2) – odds 1.15, 84 % chance – a very safe option.
- Over 2.5 goals – odds 1.62, 60 % chance – a value alternative if you expect a slightly more open game.
- Both teams to score – Yes – odds 1.73, 55 % chance – reflects the likelihood of Sparta finding the net.
- Exact score 0‑2 – 10.4 % probability – the most probable precise result.
Considering the expected goals of roughly three (Sparta 1, Bournemouth 2) and the most likely scores of 0‑2, 0‑1 or 1‑2, the Asian handicap of Bournemouth -0.75 offers the best balance of risk and reward. We would back it.
All things considered, Bournemouth’s firepower and defensive sting make them the clear favourites, but Sparta’s home support could keep the margin tight. Expect a narrow victory, a modest goal tally, and a comfortable win for the English side.
Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 6.70 | 4.80 | 1.52 |
| Market average | 6.18 | 4.56 | 1.48 |
| Lowest odds | 5.50 | 4.25 | 1.44 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.17 | 80.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 1.58 | 60.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.39 | 39.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.50 | 2.42 | 39.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.67 | 55.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.11 | 44.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 08:13. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sparta Praha 0–2 Bournemouth, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sparta Praha 16th (4 points), Bournemouth 4th (9 points).
- Form in the competition: Sparta Praha 1W 1D 1L (5:3), Bournemouth 3W 0D 0L (8:1).
- Absences: Sparta Praha 7, Bournemouth 8.
Who will win Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth: team news and absences
Sparta Praha
- M. Andersenknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Karabecankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Mercadocalf injury · will miss the match
- O. Penxaknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Rynesankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Sevinskyinjury · will miss the match
- E. Uchennagroin injury · will miss the match
Bournemouth
- M. Aaronsnot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Araujothigh injury · will miss the match
- F. Forsternot in the squad · will miss the match
- D. Jebbisonnot in the squad · will miss the match
- V. Milosavljevicnot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Sáncheznot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Scottthigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Tothmuscle injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 4 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 |  Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Sparta Praha
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Sparta PrahaLDWBournemouthWWWReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth?
Bournemouth -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.64); Under 3.5 goals (1.58).
Who will win Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth?
We estimate: Sparta Praha win 15%, draw 21%, Bournemouth win 64%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 5 November 2026, kick-off: 17:45, venue: Stadion Letná, Prague. Referee: Erik Lambrechts.
Who will be missing?
Sparta Praha: M. Andersen, A. Karabec, J. Mercado, O. Penxa, M. Rynes, A. Sevinsky, E. Uchenna. Bournemouth: M. Aarons, J. Araujo, F. Forster, D. Jebbison, V. Milosavljevic, J. Sánchez, A. Scott, A. Toth. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.62); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 40% (odds 2.45).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 56% (odds 1.70).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 0–2 as most likely (10.4%), then 1–2 (9.9%) and 0–1 (9.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.