Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is AC Milan against Bologna on 28 October 2026 · 17:30 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza (Milan), and Juan Luca Sacchi will referee. AC Milan (55%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
AC Milan vs Bologna: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. AC Milan are 5th in the table, on 21 points after 10 matches (6W 3D 1L), and Bologna are 9th, on 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average AC Milan score 2.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.9; for Bologna the figures are 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. AC Milan: 5W 3D 0L, goals 16–7; Bologna: 2W 2D 4L, goals 8–10.
- Head to head. From 32 meetings: 21 wins for AC Milan, 4 wins for Bologna and 7 draws, with the goals at 60–29.
What to expect
For us, AC Milan are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–0 (13.5%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.84), and we rate it at 53%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 49% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 47% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 32; AC Milan 21 wins, 7 draws, Bologna 4 wins.
- An average of 2.8 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: AC Milan 16–7, Bologna 8–10.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 47%.
- Out: AC Milan 7, Bologna 4.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 51%, best price 1.87). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for AC Milan: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia, M. Gila, R. Loftus-Cheek, D. Moreira, A. Rabiot, A. Saelemaekers. Absent for Bologna: E. Holm, R. Orsolini, R. Piccoli, J. Enem. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
AC Milan vs Bologna: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.78 | 3.81 | 5.33 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 3.67 | 5.10 |
| Lowest odds | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 1.33 | 71.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.05 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.84 | 1.78 | 53.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.80 | 3.60 | 26.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.92 | 48.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.87 | 1.81 | 51.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 28/10/26, 16:28. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: AC Milan 1–0 Bologna, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: AC Milan 5th (21 points), Bologna 9th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: AC Milan 5W 3D 0L (16:7), Bologna 2W 2D 4L (8:10).
- H2H: 32 matches: AC Milan 21W 7D 4L, goals 60–29.
- Absences: AC Milan 7, Bologna 4.
Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
AC Milan vs Bologna: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
AC Milan vs Bologna: team news and absences
AC Milan
- S. Chukwuezehip injury · will miss the match
- M. Gabbiathigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Gilaankle injury · will miss the match
- R. Loftus-Cheekthigh injury · will miss the match
- D. Moreirathigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Rabiotcalf injury · will miss the match
- A. Saelemaekersankle injury · will miss the match
Bologna
- E. Holmthigh injury · will miss the match
- R. Orsolinithigh injury · will miss the match
- R. Piccolihamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. EnemAchilles tendon injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 | Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
AC Milan
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AC MilanWLWWDBolognaWWWLWHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Bologna +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.59); Under 2.5 goals (1.84).
Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?
We estimate: AC Milan win 55%, draw 26%, Bologna win 19%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 28 October 2026, kick-off: 17:30, venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi.
Who will be missing?
AC Milan: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia, M. Gila, R. Loftus-Cheek, D. Moreira, A. Rabiot, A. Saelemaekers. Bologna: E. Holm, R. Orsolini, R. Piccoli, J. Enem. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 47% (odds 2.12); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 53% (odds 1.84).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 49% (odds 1.95).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (13.5%), then 1–1 (11.5%) and 2–0 (11.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.