Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
AS Roma v Genoa: 17 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Olimpico (Rome), with Rosario Abisso, Italy refereeing. We have AS Roma (59%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
AS Roma vs Genoa: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. AS Roma are 3rd in the table, on 24 points after 10 matches (7W 3D 0L), and Genoa are 11th, on 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
What to expect
For us, AS Roma are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–0 (12.7%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick BTTS: no (odds 1.80), and we rate it at 52%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 48% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 49% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 49%.
- Out: AS Roma 0, Genoa 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 52%, best price 1.80). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for AS Roma: no absences. Absent for Genoa: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
AS Roma vs Genoa: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.66 | 4.06 | 6.00 |
| Market average | 1.61 | 3.92 | 5.80 |
| Lowest odds | 1.55 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 1.28 | 72.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 1.95 | 49.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 50.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.46 | 3.28 | 28.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.93 | 48.1% |
| BTTS – no | 1.80 | 1.79 | 51.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 17/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: AS Roma 1–0 Genoa, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: AS Roma 3rd (24 points), Genoa 11th (13 points).
- Absences: AS Roma 0, Genoa 0.
Who will win AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
AS Roma vs Genoa: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
AS Roma vs Genoa: team news and absences
AS Roma
- No reported absences
Genoa
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for AS Roma vs Genoa?
Genoa +1 (Asian handicap) (1.88); BTTS: no (1.80).
Who will win AS Roma vs Genoa?
We estimate: AS Roma win 59%, draw 24%, Genoa win 17%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Referee: Rosario Abisso, Italy.
Who will be missing?
AS Roma: no absences. Genoa: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 49% (odds 2.01); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 51% (odds 1.93).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 48% (odds 1.95).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–0 as most likely (12.7%), then 2–0 (11.4%) and 1–1 (10.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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