Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lecce v Genoa: 1 November 2026 · 17:00 at Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce), with Matteo Marchetti refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Lecce vs Genoa: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Lecce are 14th in the table, on 9 points after 10 matches (3W 0D 7L), and Genoa are 11th, on 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
- Attack and defence. On average Lecce score 1.1 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.1; for Genoa the figures are 0.9 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lecce: 3W 0D 6L, goals 10–19; Genoa: 3W 1D 5L, goals 8–13.
- Head to head. From 15 meetings: 2 wins for Lecce, 8 wins for Genoa and 5 draws, with the goals at 15–26.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (13.2%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.69), and we rate it at 58%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 49% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 42% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 15; Lecce 2 wins, 5 draws, Genoa 8 wins.
- An average of 2.7 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Lecce 10–19, Genoa 8–13.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 42%.
- Out: Lecce 6, Genoa 3.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 51%, best price 1.95). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Lecce: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly, K. Gaspar, W. Geubbels, I. Ilic, S. Pierotti. Absent for Genoa: E. Havel, L. Venturino, M. E. Ellertsson. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Lecce vs Genoa: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.37 | 3.11 | 2.58 |
| Market average | 3.19 | 3.00 | 2.46 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.25 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.40 | 66.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.29 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.63 | 58.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.50 | 4.15 | 22.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.00 | 1.89 | 49.4% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.84 | 50.6% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 16:38. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.4%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Lecce 1–1 Genoa, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lecce 14th (9 points), Genoa 11th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Lecce 3W 0D 6L (10:19), Genoa 3W 1D 5L (8:13).
- H2H: 15 matches: Lecce 2W 5D 8L, goals 15–26.
- Absences: Lecce 6, Genoa 3.
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Lecce vs Genoa: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Lecce vs Genoa: team news and absences
Lecce
- M. Berishathigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Coulibalythigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Gasparred card · will miss the match
- W. Geubbelsmuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Ilicthigh injury · will miss the match
- S. Pierottiankle injury · will miss the match
Genoa
- E. Havelankle injury · will miss the match
- L. Venturinoknee injury · will miss the match
- M. E. Ellertssonankle injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Lecce
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
LecceLLLWLGenoaWWWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Lecce vs Genoa?
Genoa +0 (Asian handicap) (1.76); Under 2.5 goals (1.69).
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
We estimate: Lecce win 30%, draw 32%, Genoa win 39%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 17:00, venue: Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce. Referee: Matteo Marchetti.
Who will be missing?
Lecce: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly, K. Gaspar, W. Geubbels, I. Ilic, S. Pierotti. Genoa: E. Havel, L. Venturino, M. E. Ellertsson. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 42% (odds 2.44); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 58% (odds 1.69).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 49% (odds 2.00).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (13.2%), then 0–1 (12.5%) and 1–0 (10.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.