Bet with Freshbet →Aston Villa play Sunderland at home on 21 November 2026 · 15:00 at Villa Park (Birmingham). For us, Aston Villa (54%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Aston Villa are 10th in the table, on 12 points after 9 matches (3W 3D 3L), and Sunderland are 20th, on 5 points (1W 2D 6L).
What to expect
For us, Aston Villa are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.80), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 54% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 54% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 54%.
- Out: Aston Villa 0, Sunderland 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 54%, best price 1.80). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Aston Villa: no absences. Absent for Sunderland: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.80 | 4.16 | 4.72 |
| Market average | 1.75 | 3.81 | 4.43 |
| Lowest odds | 1.73 | 3.34 | 3.88 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.24 | 76.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.79 | 53.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 2.07 | 46.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 2.93 | 32.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.72 | 54.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.04 | 45.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 03:43. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Aston Villa 1–1 Sunderland, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Aston Villa 10th (12 points), Sunderland 20th (5 points).
- Absences: Aston Villa 0, Sunderland 0.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: team news and absences
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
Sunderland
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Aston Villa
Home and away
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Sunderland +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.97); Both teams to score (1.80).
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
We estimate: Aston Villa win 54%, draw 25%, Sunderland win 21%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 21 November 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: Villa Park, Birmingham.
Who will be missing?
Aston Villa: no absences. Sunderland: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.82); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 46% (odds 2.15).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 54% (odds 1.80).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.2%), then 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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