Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Inter against Fiorentina on 25 October 2026 · 11:30 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza (Milan), and Maurizio Mariani will referee. Inter (71%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Inter vs Fiorentina: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Inter are 2nd in the table, on 25 points after 10 matches (8W 1D 1L), and Fiorentina are 16th, on 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. On average Inter score 3.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.3; for Fiorentina the figures are 1.1 scored and 2.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Inter: 6W 1D 0L, goals 21–9; Fiorentina: 1W 1D 5L, goals 8–17.
- Head to head. From 36 meetings: 21 wins for Inter, 8 wins for Fiorentina and 7 draws, with the goals at 67–50.
What to expect
For us, Inter are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–0 (9.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.67), and we rate it at 57%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 57% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 67% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 36; Inter 21 wins, 7 draws, Fiorentina 8 wins.
- An average of 3.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Inter 21–9, Fiorentina 8–17.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 67%.
- Out: Inter 6, Fiorentina 4.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 57%, best price 1.67). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Inter: C. Jones, Luis Henrique, L. Martinez, B. Pavard, M. Spinacce, J. Stones. Absent for Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, L. Ranieri, R. Sottil. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Inter vs Fiorentina: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.40 | 5.87 | 8.57 |
| Market average | 1.35 | 5.50 | 7.90 |
| Lowest odds | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.10 | 84.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.39 | 67.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.04 | 2.89 | 32.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.03 | 47.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.63 | 57.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.18 | 42.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 08:58. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.0%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Inter 2–0 Fiorentina, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Inter 2nd (25 points), Fiorentina 16th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Inter 6W 1D 0L (21:9), Fiorentina 1W 1D 5L (8:17).
- H2H: 36 matches: Inter 21W 7D 8L, goals 67–50.
- Absences: Inter 6, Fiorentina 4.
Who will win Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Inter vs Fiorentina: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Inter vs Fiorentina: team news and absences
Inter
- C. Jonesthigh injury · will miss the match
- Luis Henriquethigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Martinezthigh injury · will miss the match
- B. Pavardthigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Spinaccenot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Stonesinjury · will miss the match
Fiorentina
- A. Attaabsence · will miss the match
- F. Parisiknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Ranieriabsence · will miss the match
- R. Sottilback injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Inter
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
InterLWWWWFiorentinaWDLLLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina +1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Both teams to score (1.67).
Who will win Inter vs Fiorentina?
We estimate: Inter win 71%, draw 17%, Fiorentina win 12%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 11:30, venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. Referee: Maurizio Mariani.
Who will be missing?
Inter: C. Jones, Luis Henrique, L. Martinez, B. Pavard, M. Spinacce, J. Stones. Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, L. Ranieri, R. Sottil. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 67% (odds 1.42); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 33% (odds 3.04).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 57% (odds 1.67).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–0 as most likely (9.9%), then 2–1 (9.4%) and 3–0 (8.3%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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