Bet with Freshbet →Lens v Toulouse: 21 November 2026 · 19:45 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens). We have Lens (53%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Lens vs Toulouse: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Lens are 9th in the table, on 13 points after 9 matches (4W 1D 4L), and Toulouse are 12th, on 10 points (2W 4D 3L).
What to expect
For us, Lens are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.57), and we rate it at 62%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 59% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 59% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 59%.
- Out: Lens 0, Toulouse 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 59%, best price 1.60). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Lens: no absences. Absent for Toulouse: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Lens vs Toulouse: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.88 | 4.21 | 4.20 |
| Market average | 1.79 | 4.02 | 4.09 |
| Lowest odds | 1.73 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.17 | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.62 | 59.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.35 | 40.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.60 | 2.51 | 37.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.60 | 1.57 | 59.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.35 | 2.29 | 40.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 03:22. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.4%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Lens 1–1 Toulouse, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lens 9th (13 points), Toulouse 12th (10 points).
- Absences: Lens 0, Toulouse 0.
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Lens vs Toulouse: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Lens vs Toulouse: team news and absences
Lens
- No reported absences
Toulouse
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Lens vs Toulouse?
Over 2.5 goals (1.69); Lens to win (1.88).
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
We estimate: Lens win 53%, draw 24%, Toulouse win 23%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 21 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens.
Who will be missing?
Lens: no absences. Toulouse: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.69); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 41% (odds 2.42).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.60).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.3%), then 2–1 (9.8%) and 1–0 (8.6%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.