Bet with Freshbet →Monza v Fiorentina: 23 November 2026 · 17:30 at U-Power Stadium (Monza). We have Fiorentina (47%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Monza vs Fiorentina: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Monza are 18th in the table, on 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L), and Fiorentina are 16th, on 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
What to expect
For us, Fiorentina are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.53), and we rate it at 63%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 60% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 59% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 59%.
- Out: Monza 0, Fiorentina 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 60%, best price 1.57). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Monza: no absences. Absent for Fiorentina: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Monza vs Fiorentina: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.60 | 3.96 | 2.10 |
| Market average | 3.45 | 3.80 | 2.03 |
| Lowest odds | 3.36 | 3.70 | 1.91 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 1.18 | 79.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 1.64 | 58.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.39 | 2.33 | 41.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.53 | 37.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 60.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.37 | 2.33 | 39.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 03:12. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Monza 1–1 Fiorentina, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monza 18th (7 points), Fiorentina 16th (8 points).
- Absences: Monza 0, Fiorentina 0.
Who will win Monza vs Fiorentina?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Monza vs Fiorentina: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Monza vs Fiorentina: team news and absences
Monza
- No reported absences
Fiorentina
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Monza
Home and away
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Monza vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina +0 (Asian handicap) (1.59); Under 3.5 goals (1.53).
Who will win Monza vs Fiorentina?
We estimate: Monza win 28%, draw 25%, Fiorentina win 47%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 23 November 2026, kick-off: 17:30, venue: U-Power Stadium, Monza.
Who will be missing?
Monza: no absences. Fiorentina: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 59% (odds 1.68); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 41% (odds 2.39).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.8%), then 1–2 (9.4%) and 0–1 (8.3%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.