Bet with Freshbet →Monza v Atalanta: 8 November 2026 · 14:00 at U-Power Stadium (Monza). We have Atalanta (46%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Monza vs Atalanta betting prediction
Monza have managed just one win in their last five outings and sit 18th, which makes backing the visitors in this Serie A Matchweek 11 fixture at the U-Power Stadium, with kick-off at 14:00 on 8 November 2026, an easy call. Our top selection is Atalanta +0 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.60, a 62% chance. We also fancy Both teams to score at odds of 1.55, which carries the same 62% chance.
Monza at home facing a tougher stretch
Across this competition, Monza have collected two victories and a single draw, while suffering seven losses. They have scored 17 and conceded 24, which places them 18th with 7 points. Their home form is the more encouraging side of the picture: two wins and two defeats, 9 goals scored and 8 conceded. Of everything in their campaign, that is the sole area where the hosts can genuinely take comfort.
Across all competitions the picture is harsher. Monza's one win in their last five was a 4-0 home success over Cagliari on 19 October. The defeats include a 4-1 home loss to Napoli on 28 October and a 2-1 loss at Bologna on 31 October. Those five games brought 9 goals for and 12 against, and they average 1.7 scored and 2.4 conceded per match in this league.
Atalanta's road record and their last five
Atalanta are 13th on 11 points, built from three wins, two draws and five defeats, with 16 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have struggled badly: they have yet to win on the road in this league, managing a single draw and three losses, with 5 scored and 9 conceded. Their wider form is no brighter. Across their last five matches they have collected no wins, two draws and three losses, scoring 8 and conceding 14. Still, the 4-4 draw with Frosinone on 25 October and the 2-2 at Fiorentina on 29 October prove they can carve out openings. The 0-3 home loss to Parma on 2 November, however, highlights how readily they can be kept off the scoresheet.
Six meetings, one winner, and a missing player
Atalanta have beaten Monza in each of their last six meetings, netting 18 goals while letting in just 3. The most recent of those was a 4-0 away win on 4 May 2025, and Monza have walked away empty-handed from all six. Results alone won't settle a fixture, yet this one has tilted in the same direction for a long stretch.
Monza report no injuries or suspensions. Atalanta are missing I. Hien, though we don't consider his absence a significant blow. It offers the hosts a slight advantage, but not one that alters our assessment.
Both tips and where the odds stand
Going by the bookmakers' prices, Atalanta have a 46% chance of winning (best odds 2.10), Monza 29% (best odds 3.44), and the draw 25% (best odds 4.01). Among exact outcomes, 1-1 comes up at 10.6%, 1-2 at 9.3% and 0-1 at 7.9%. This is a read of what the market anticipates, not a record of how earlier meetings unfolded. With a 6.4% margin on the result, the odds offer little room for value.
Our top pick is Atalanta +0 at 1.60. With the +0 handicap, Atalanta collect on a win, get their stake back on a draw, and lose it on a defeat. The likeliest outcomes split like this: a 1-1 or 2-2 returns the stake, 1-2, 0-1 and 0-2 all pay out, and only 2-1 loses.
Our reasoning rests on four points. Monza have taken just one win from their last five, while Atalanta sit higher in the table with 11 points against Monza's 7. In head-to-head meetings, Atalanta have won six of the last six, and Monza have not won any. The market prices the outcome at 62% with the best available odds of 1.60. A 2-1 home win is the result that would beat us, so we keep the stake at a moderate level.
Our number two selection is Both teams to score at 1.55. Monza have seen both sides find the net in four of their last five outings, and in every one of those games they scored. Atalanta have managed it in three of their last five. We project roughly 3 goals overall, with Monza close to 1 and Atalanta close to 2. This bet collects on 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2, and falls short on 0-1 and 0-2. It also cashes on 2-1, a score where our main tip goes down, so the two picks interpret this fixture from different angles.
Three side bets worth considering
- Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.20 (chance 81%). Low payout, yet it lines up with an expected total of roughly 3 goals.
- Draw or Atalanta (X2) at odds 1.36 (chance 71%). A lower-risk way to back the visitors that does not require them to win outright.
- Under 11.5 corners at odds 1.23 (chance 75%). A low-stakes pick that suits a cautious approach to the afternoon.
None of these runs against our main tip, and we would steer clear of any Monza bet while the case for Atalanta holds. The visitors' stronger league position and their record in this fixture are why we back them.
Monza vs Atalanta: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.50 | 4.01 | 2.10 |
| Market average | 3.31 | 3.76 | 2.05 |
| Lowest odds | 2.94 | 3.35 | 2.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.16 | 81.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.63 | 1.57 | 60.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.55 | 2.42 | 39.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.36 | 40.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.50 | 62.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.48 | 37.6% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 03:12. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Monza 1–1 Atalanta, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monza 18th (7 points), Atalanta 13th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Monza 2W 1D 7L (17:24), Atalanta 3W 2D 5L (16:20).
- H2H: 6 matches: Monza 0W 0D 6L, goals 3–18.
- Absences: Monza 0, Atalanta 1.
Who will win Monza vs Atalanta?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Monza vs Atalanta: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Monza vs Atalanta: team news and absences
Monza
- No reported absences
Atalanta
- I. Hienabsence · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Monza
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
MonzaLLLWLAtalantaLDDLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Monza vs Atalanta?
Atalanta +0 (Asian handicap) (1.60); Both teams to score (1.55).
Who will win Monza vs Atalanta?
We estimate: Monza win 29%, draw 25%, Atalanta win 46%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 8 November 2026, kick-off: 14:00, venue: U-Power Stadium, Monza.
Who will be missing?
Monza: no absences. Atalanta: I. Hien. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.63); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 39% (odds 2.55).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 62% (odds 1.55).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.6%), then 1–2 (9.3%) and 0–1 (7.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.